After three years of Yin, the decline of chemical products is difficult to stop

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

since this week, the chemical industry sector has appeared "three consecutive Yin", a short period of three trading days, the cumulative decline has been as high as 9.91%. As of yesterday's closing, all chemical products fell to the limit. Among them, pta1509 and Zhengchun 1509 fell by more than 7%, rubber 1509 by more than 6%, plastic 1509 and pta1509 by nearly 6%, and pp1509 by 3.99%. Industry insiders interviewed by China Securities News believe that the continuous sharp drop in the chemical industry sector is mainly due to the sharp fall in international oil prices and rising concerns about China's economy. In particular, the downstream demand for most downstream chemicals is low. In the short term, the decline in chemicals may continue without the support of beneficial factors.


from the upstream point of view, the price of crude oil from Japan and the United States in the recent 10 transactions is about 14%, which is currently around $52 / barrel. The cost support is weakened and the pressure on chemicals is inevitable. Niu Hui, senior energy and chemical analyst of Anxin futures, pointed out that although Iran's nuclear negotiations are full of difficulties and the deadline for negotiations has been delayed, the long-term sanctions have made it difficult for Iran to bear the heavy pressure on the Iranian economy. Under the respective needs of both sides of the negotiations, the negotiations still hope to reach a certain degree of common understanding. Once the consensus is reached, the lifting of the ban on Iran's crude oil export will naturally throw significant benefits to the crude oil market Empty, crude oil pressure under the expected downward inevitable.

"Iran's nuclear negotiations are expected to reach an agreement in the near future, which will further enhance the expectation of crude oil supply, and weaken the supporting role of domestic chemical products cost due to the sharp fall of international oil price." At the same time, Chen Dong, researcher of Baocheng futures, also said that at present, the downstream demand of most chemicals is low, which is mainly affected by the increasing downward pressure of domestic economic growth. Under the background of the weakening of both financial and commodity attributes, the sharp drop has become the main feature of the recent trend of chemical products.

What will happen to chemicals after the

falls sharply in the short term? Chen Dong believes that the short-term chemicals are still strongly driven by the rising risk aversion and the fall of international oil prices. It is expected that the decline of chemicals in the future will not be reversed for the time being. However, due to the large decline of most varieties of contracts in the three trading days this week, the futures price will release most of the negative sentiment It is expected that the pace of decline is expected to slow down in the future. It is still a wise choice for investors to short and hold short positions when there is a high rebound. Mao Jianping, a senior analyst at


Haitong Futures Research Institute, also believes that after a long-term decline in the commodity market, most of the risks have been released. At present, the price of Shanghai rubber has made rubber farmers unwilling to cut rubber. The decline of Shanghai Rubber and other commodities has nothing to do with the fundamentals. A substantial drop will provide excellent market opportunities. From the perspective of


, Niu Hui said that in terms of PTA, China's textile and clothing export data is not ideal this year. In the first five months, there were four months of negative export growth. Poor terminal demand is an important reason for PTA's long-term weakness. "PTA's current round of decline occurred at the beginning of May. After the horizontal consolidation in June, the decline of crude oil led to PTA cost collapse. In early July, PTA finished the periodic consolidation and continued to carry out the decline. However, the rapid decline was also attributed to the strong pessimism of the whole capital market." In terms of


plastics, Niu Hui pointed out that the second half of the year coincides with the peak production and marketing season of agricultural film, and there will be stock demand in July. In addition to the horizontal arrangement of crude oil, these are the reasons why the price of plastics in the early stage maintains the consolidation and slow rise pattern. After last year's rally, it can only be seen as an important breakthrough in the upper part of the RMB 9800-2014. However, it can only be seen as an important support for the breakout of the previous RMB 9800-2014. In addition, with the decline of crude oil, cost support decline, plastic under pressure to start a wave of killing market.


as the leading varieties of polyester products, the decline of plastics also led to the corresponding decline of PP, PVC and other varieties. On the whole, in the absence of positive factors to support the situation, the killing kinetic energy still exists, the decline is inevitable. " Niu Hui said.

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