Asphalt: limited growth

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

entered the second quarter, and winter storage basically ended. Although the demand for asphalt increased with the construction of road projects, the southern region is about to enter the Meiyu season. Highway construction projects will be hindered again, and the demand is difficult to continue to grow. The increase of asphalt in the later period is relatively limited. Since the middle of 2013, the "oil price" of "spkds" and "oil price of oil" in downstream countries have rebounded, and the "spkds" crude oil production market has been expected to rise since mid-2013. At present, more than 10 oil producing countries have agreed to join the agreement, but Iran has explicitly refused to freeze oil production with other oil producing countries. As the sanctions against this country have just been lifted at the beginning of this year, it is necessary for Iran to resume oil production in the future, which also makes the agreement discount. However, news this week that Russia and Saudi Arabia reached a consensus on freezing oil production without relying on Iran, which greatly encouraged market bulls and led to a breakthrough in crude oil. However, behind the good news, the improvement in the supply and demand side is limited, the overall supply surplus in the market is still serious, and the global inventory in many regions is approaching the limit of storage capacity, which has hidden dangers for the rise of oil prices.

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asphalt spot rising momentum is insufficient

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in March, the spot price of asphalt has changed from the previous downturn. Under the superposition of winter storage demand and rigid demand, major asphalt refineries have continuously raised the ex factory asphalt price. The asphalt price in northern China, especially in North China and Shandong, rose first, with an increase of 100-150 yuan / ton in March. In the first ten days of April, some manufacturers in Northeast and northwest regions made up for the increase, while others remained stable. By the end of last week, the mainstream transaction prices in Northeast China were 1750-1800 yuan / ton, 1700-1850 yuan / ton in North China, 1650-1800 yuan / ton in Shandong and 1700-1800 yuan / ton in East China. In addition, the prices of imported asphalt from South Korea and Singapore are also rising recently. The CFR CIF price of Korean asphalt from spot to various regions in China rose by 7.5 US dollars / ton in April, and to 215 US dollars / ton in South China in May; the FOB price of Singapore asphalt increased by 7.5 US dollars / ton to 150-155 US dollars / ton. It is expected that there is still a small space for domestic and imported asphalt prices to rise in the future, and it is expected to stabilize by the end of April. The winter storage demand of

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is over, and the supply gap is not large.

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will enter the centralized maintenance period from mid to late March. From March to April, Zhenhai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical and alpha refineries will stop production for maintenance. From April to may, PetroChina Xingneng, CNPC Qinhuangdao, CNOOC Taizhou, Liaohe Petrochemical and Panjin Beili refineries will also enter the maintenance period. In the second quarter, the overall supply of resources in the market will drop significantly, and the operating rate of refineries will drop from more than 60% to about 50%. However, due to the fact that the number of refineries planned to be overhauled this year is less than that of previous years, and the demand for asphalt in April and may will also fall in stages, so there will be no obvious supply gap in the market, and the overall balance of supply and demand will be maintained.

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enter April, and the winter storage of asphalt is basically finished. However, with the warming of temperature, some municipal projects have been started, and the rigid market demand has increased. However, in the first half of the year, small and medium-sized projects are mainly used, and the demand for asphalt is limited. Moreover, the southern China will enter the Meiyu period in April and may, which will have a certain impact on the road construction and restrict the release of asphalt demand. Overall, the spot demand of asphalt in the second quarter will decline compared with the previous period, and the support for asphalt price will also be weakened.