Centralized spring inspection and demand game

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

After a wave of adjustment in the first quarter, there is still some pressure on the market to recover in the second quarter.

Although the market is full of expectations for centralized spring inspection of chlor alkali manufacturers, the actual boosting effect is not obvious at present.

the demand performance of printing and dyeing, papermaking and other terminal industries is general, making the market of caustic soda still under the pressure of recovery.

The support of centralized spring inspection is limited, and the "little spring" of Northwest flake caustic soda is short-lived.

Compared with previous years, the supporting role of centralized spring inspection of chlor alkali manufacturers on caustic soda market in 2016 was weakened.

According to the statistics of Liu ruimao, an industry analyst of Guangdong Plastics Exchange, the caustic soda production capacity of chlor alkali manufacturers that have been overhauled and planned for spring inspection is 9.

94 million tons, accounting for 1 / 4 of the total caustic soda production capacity of 38.

73 million tons in 2015.

However, considering that the maintenance time of chlor alkali manufacturers is not long, and most manufacturers maintain about 4-5 days, the impact on the overall market of caustic soda is very limited.

List of spring inspection of chlor alkali manufacturers in 2016: maintenance time of caustic soda production capacity of regional chlor alkali manufacturers: from March 24, Haina, salt lake, northwest Qinghai.

from March 28, Ningxia, jinyuyuan, Ningxia.

from March 28, Wuhai chemical industry.

from April 7 to April 14, Inner Mongolia Junzheng 23 new plant.

from early April to April 24, Xinjiang Zhongtai 110.

from March 28, Xinjiang Tianye 120, from April 10, to repair Erdos 30, Inner Mongolia, 7-27 April, Shengxiong, Xinjiang 40, 20 days from April 20, Inner Mongolia Yili 38, maintenance plan at the end of April, Yidong Dongxing, Inner Mongolia, 32, may, maintenance plan, Qingdao Haijing, North China, shutdown and overhaul in mid April, Shandong Dadi salt chemical 90, April 4-11, Tianjin Dagu chemical 62, Jining Jinwei 36, April 26 Shanxi Yushe 35 parking maintenance April 26-28 Shandong Haihua 25 plan to stop in mid May overhaul Tangshan Sanyou 50 plan to stop and repair in early June East China Jiangsu Haixing 32 mid early April parking maintenance Jiangsu Liwen 22 April 11-18 parking maintenance Shanghai chlor alkali 72 April 11-26 Anhui HuaSu 32 planned maintenance southwest Sichuan Leshan Yongxiang 10 9.

94 million tons of chlor alkali plants were shut down for maintenance from the Spring Festival to April 8, 35, March 20-30 in Yibin Tianyuan.

The boost brought by concentrated spring inspection of chlor alkali manufacturers only played a greater role in the Northwest market.

From the end of March to the first ten days of April, chlor alkali manufacturers in Northwest Qinghai Salt Lake Haina, Xinjiang Zhongtai, Ningxia jinyuyuan, Wuhai chemical, Inner Mongolia Junzheng, Xinjiang Tianye and other chlor alkali manufacturers stopped for maintenance or rotation repair, resulting in the shortage of local supply of flake caustic soda.

The mainstream factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Inner Mongolia increased rapidly from 2050-2100 yuan / ton to 2100-2200 yuan / ton, and the price returned to the level in September 2015 , up 5-10%.

However, Haojing only lasted for half a month.

Due to the poor demand of the consumer market in East and South China, the high price flake soda gradually fell back from the middle and late April.

This also further reflects that the terminal demand of caustic soda is still low, and the resistance of market recovery is large.

China's GDP growth rate was 6.

7% in the first quarter.

Various economic indicators released at home show that China's economy is gradually stabilizing and improving.

However, the terminal demand of caustic soda has not fully recovered, and the differentiation of various demand industries has intensified.

On the one hand, alumina "one branch alone" led the market.

The new capacity of Shandong Weiqiao and Huajin Aluminum Co., Ltd. were put into production in Indonesia and Shanxi at the end of March and early April, respectively, which greatly supported the liquid caustic soda market in North China.

Among them, Shandong had the largest increase.

The mainstream ex factory price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was 480-540 yuan / ton at the end of April, which was 40 yuan / ton or 8% higher than that in early April Moreover, the supporting effect of alumina on caustic soda still exists.

It is heard that the order price of liquid caustic soda purchased by Weiqiao, Shandong Province, is still planned to rise at the end of April and early May, which may further drive the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong to a new high.

On the other hand, the printing and dyeing and papermaking industries are under great pressure from the policy level, such as de capacity and environmental protection.

Take the printing and dyeing industry of Jiangsu and Zhejiang as an example.

The printing and dyeing fabrics of these two provinces account for more than 75% of the total amount of the country.

Influenced by the G20 summit held in Zhejiang and other factors, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have been strengthening the crackdown on printing and dyeing enterprises since the Spring Festival of the monkey year.

The closure rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Yiwu, Xiaoshan and Wujiang reaches 40-50%.

However, these two provinces are the second largest liquid caustic soda production areas in China.

Due to the continuous downturn of downstream demand, local chlor alkali manufacturers have high inventory and low price shipment.

In addition, the pulp output of Guangdong and Guangxi accounts for 17% of the national total.

In recent two years, the government has tightened environmental monitoring on local paper enterprises, and some small and medium-sized paper mills have been forced to shut down.

The local demand for alkali consumption has been sluggish, and the mainstream price of 99% flake caustic soda dropped from 2500-2550 yuan / ton in the Spring Festival to 2450-2500 yuan / ton in mid April, with a decrease of 50 yuan / ton.

Overall, the game between centralized spring inspection of chlor alkali manufacturers and downstream terminal demand is still continuing, and the regional differentiated market is more prominent.

On the supply side, the chlor alkali manufacturers started to maintain 70-80% of their units.

Although some units were inspected in spring, it did not affect the overall supply of goods in the market.

Some chlor alkali manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang had high stocks.

On the demand side, the alumina industry had a great support for caustic soda, while the future market of printing and dyeing, papermaking and other industries was still difficult to improve.

At present, the market of caustic soda is facing the pressure of low downstream demand in some areas and high inventory of chlor alkali manufacturers.

The future market pays close attention to the macro policy, downstream demand and export market changes.

(author: Liu ruimao, industry analyst of Guangdong Plastics Exchange).