Chemical futures market rises again

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
The momentum of

and "coal flying color dance" has weakened, while energy and chemical industry is expected to take over and lift the upsurge again. Yesterday, with the shock and recovery of international oil prices, the enthusiasm of PTA, glass, PVC and other chemical products in the futures market continued to rise, and 44 chemical stocks including Fosun technology, Fangda chemical, Huaxi and Chengxing shares in the A-share market rose and closed collectively. Industry analysts believe that the low crude oil price upward stage is also the best stage for the chemical industry to make profits. With the further promotion of A-share market enthusiasm, the chemical industry will usher in a supplementary rise.

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futures double fly, the chemical industry staged a wave of trading limits.

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peaked at $57.46/barrel on May 28, and New York oil prices rebounded sharply. As of 19:00 Beijing time on June 2, the main July contract of New York crude oil futures rose by 0.6 USD to 60.8 USD / barrel, while that of Brent crude oil futures rose by 0.43 USD to 65.31 USD / barrel. Compared with the low at the beginning of the year, the international oil price has rebounded by more than 30%. However, the rise in chemicals was not significant. According to the statistics of the commodity data business agency, the chemical index on June 2 was 743 points, down 1 point from the previous day, 26.87% lower than the highest point of 1016 points in the cycle (March 13, 2012), and 3.48% higher than the lowest point of 718 points on February 3, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

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. According to the statistics from May 18 to 31, 2015, the top five products of price increase are urea (US Gulf FOB), urea, TDI, BDO and PVC (calcium carbide method); the top five products with two-week decline are liquid chlorine, methanol, pure benzene, Brent crude oil and polyester filament. Among the 64 kinds of chemical products that the business cooperatives focus on tracking, only 6 kinds of chemical products have risen in the two weeks, and 25 kinds have fallen, while the prices of other varieties are flat. Zhang Ming, a senior analyst in the chemical industry of

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business community, said that at present, crude oil prices are volatile, many chemical products have lost their cost support, and the downstream demand has not increased significantly, so the price rise of products also lacks motivation. As for the price of urea in this period, he believes that the main reason is that with the reduction of export tariff, domestic urea can be exported smoothly, and driven by international urea price, domestic urea price has also increased. However, combined with the trend of crude oil, the chemical industry may usher in the best stage. Because "the low and upward stage of crude oil price is also the best stage for the chemical industry to make profits."

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on May 8, data released by Baker Hughes, a well-known institution, showed that the number of us oil drilling platforms decreased by 11 to 668, the smallest decline since the beginning of April. According to the Research Report of CSCI securities, this means that with the rebound of crude oil price, the decline rate of the number of drilling platforms in the United States begins to slow down, which will prevent the pace of crude oil prices from continuing to rise. In addition, the low oil price has risen by 50%, so it is judged that the short-term oil price has rebounded in place, and there is a possibility of a correction in the short term, but the decline range is limited. The low and upward stage of crude oil price is also the stage of the best profit for the chemical industry. At present, the crude oil price is still at the historical low level. If the decline of crude oil price is limited, the chemical industry will still be in the stage of profit improvement, and the demand factor will be the key factor to determine the price trend of chemical products in the future.

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chemical industry profits will gradually improve.

since the beginning of this year, the CITIC basic chemical sector index has risen 131.59%, and the chemical sector index has exceeded the peak in 2008 and reached a record high. According to the Securities Research Report of China Securities construction investment, on the one hand, the sharp rise of the chemical industry plate index is driven by the relevant restructuring stocks in the plate, on the other hand, the transformation stocks in the chemical industry plate pull the plate index, especially the huge increase of individual stocks related to the Internet. Compared with the huge increase of transformation chemical companies, the short-term mean value regression of the undervalued stocks in the plate may exist. With the improvement of industry profits, this will further promote the stock price rebound of undervalued stocks, and there is a demand for replenishment of traditional cyclical products. Therefore, it is suggested to pay attention to individual stocks of chemical industry with undervalued stagflation.

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Bohai Securities Research Report believes that, from the industry level, although the current international crude oil price is slightly reduced from the low level, the market demand has not yet fully recovered, and it is difficult for the chemical industry to show good performance in the short term; However, with the low price of crude oil, the cost pressure of enterprises is weakened, and with the gradual recovery of market demand, it is expected that the performance of chemical industry will be better after June.

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the agency believes that, from the perspective of valuation, with the overall improvement of the overall market, the overall valuation of the chemical industry is on the high side. However, from the perspective of stock growth, the major recent gains are mainly reflected in the concept of restructuring and the concept of network access; In the future, with the gradual improvement of industry profits, stocks with undervalued and stable performance are expected to show supplementary demand, such as related stocks in sub industries such as fluorine chemical industry, chemical fiber and agricultural chemical industry, as well as titanium dioxide, polyurethane and other sub industries with obvious price increase. It is expected that with the gradual implementation of national investment policies, the market demand for related products will also be driven. It is suggested that the chemical industry unit should be arranged at the right time.

Founder Securities Research Report that the recent market continued to rise willfully, gem index set a new high in this round. Although the performance of chemical products in this round of market has been differentiated: transformation, network related, endogenous growth and coordinated development of extension, the performance of most cycle products is relatively general due to the low oil price and other factors. With the further promotion of market enthusiasm, the chemical industry may usher in supplementary price rise. It is suggested that the investment opportunities of chemical industry should be actively grasped, and reasonable allocation should be made to achieve the effect of both attack and defense. We are still optimistic about the varieties with high flexibility, transformation, network related and performance inflection points with strong growth certainty.


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