Chemical products after adjustment

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

on May 7, commodities and A-share markets are welcoming "Black Thursday". On the futures market, chemical products such as plastics, asphalt, PP, methanol, etc. led the decline in the market. Among them, the main plastic contract 1509 fell 3.21% to 9805 yuan / ton, and even went out of the fourth consecutive negative this week.

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reviewed the recent market performance and found that the whole chemical industry sector was in a weak adjustment pattern. In this regard, most analysts interviewed by China Securities Journal believe that there are two main reasons for the decline of chemicals in this round: first, the overall continuous rise of the chemical sector in the early stage, and the short-term market demand for technical correction; second, the recent increase in crude oil is obvious, most of the market expects that the crude oil will rise sharply again, and some of the downstream chemicals are bearish. Looking forward to the future, the chemical industry plate may come out of the downward trend with crude oil, but its fundamental support is still in, and it is expected that the chemical products adjustment is expected to regain the upward trend.

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chemicals collectively weakened,

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this Thursday (May 7), the chemical sector led the decline in the commodity market. As of yesterday's closing, the plastic 1509 contract fell 3.21% to 9805 yuan / ton, asphalt 1506, pp1509, Zheng alcohol 1509 all fell more than 2%, rubber 1509 and pvc1509 all fell more than 1%.

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futures researchers pointed out that almost all Petrochemical varieties have accumulated considerable growth in the early stage, and behind these increases, there is not much fundamental support for de stocking and de capacity. Therefore, it is normal for the varieties without substantial fundamental changes to go back after rising.

futures researchers said that there are two reasons behind the weakness of chemicals: first, the domestic futures index fell sharply for three consecutive days, which led to the lack of confidence in the market to do long, and implicated the popularity of chemical products to do long; second, the domestic economic data continued to be weak, and the terminal force of demand could not continue to support the stronger futures price of chemical products, while the market had been looking forward to the loose policy of increasing the price There was no response, leading to the instability of the long army. The short-term adjustment of

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is likely to continue. The crude oil price and variety fundamentals of

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are still the two key factors determining the trend of chemical industry plate. For the future trend of oil prices, there are some differences in the industry.

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futures researchers are relatively pessimistic about the trend of oil prices. He said, "although the recent rise of crude oil seems to be fast, it is difficult to sustain, and the upward space is very limited. And once the peak consumption season is over, the high crude oil production will also exert pressure on the oil price. At that time, the crude oil may still fall, and the chemical industry sector will follow the crude oil out of the downward trend. "

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but Guantong futures researchers believe that in the medium and long term, there may be hidden worries about the increase of crude oil supply, and there is not much space above the oil price, but the short-term crude oil price is still relatively strong, which is more powerful to support the downstream costs.

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analysts also said that crude oil still has the possibility of strengthening in the future, the signs of us production peaking, inventory began to decline and the arrival of seasonal demand will benefit oil prices, which will support the whole petrochemical sector.

from the perspective of chemical industry, futures researchers pointed out that at present, the start-up of agricultural film and plastic film downstream of plastics is stable, a large proportion of production units are still in maintenance, and the inventory has been reduced month on month for two consecutive months; the operating rate of PTA production unit is 68%, and the downstream operating rate is more than 80%. The supply and demand situation of other varieties is similar. Overall, fundamentals do not support the sharp decline of chemicals. "Chemicals are expected to enter the upward channel again after a brief correction."


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