Chemicals performance strong, aftermarket or shock upward

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

with the international oil price bottom rebound, downstream chemical plate also took a wave of dazzling rebound. According to statistics, since the middle of January, the Wenhua chemical index has increased by nearly 23%.

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analysts believe that in addition to the rebound in international oil prices and cost side advantages, the rebound of chemical products is also closely related to its own basic situation. The maintenance of supply units and the more abundant domestic liquidity are important factors for the rise of chemicals since this year.

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chemical products showed strong performance,

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this Monday (4.27), the chemical sector continued the strong pattern, except for PTA high adjustment, related varieties were all red. Among them, rubber 1509 rose 3.22% to close at 14280 yuan / ton, hitting 14580 yuan / ton, the highest since July last year.

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trace back to the year's market, the strength of the chemical industry sector began around January 15. As of April 28, the cultural and chemical industry index has increased by nearly 23%, of which methanol futures is the most powerful, with the cumulative increase of the range close to 32%; the cumulative increases of plastics, PP and PTA futures ranges were about 27%, 25% and 20% respectively; PVC and rubber futures performed relatively poorly, but the cumulative increases were about 15%.

"because the upstream of chemical futures is basically crude oil, so the rise of oil price will inevitably lead to the rise of chemical futures prices." According to the researcher, from the recent trend of PE / > LLDPE, PP and PTA futures, we can see that they are all in the pattern of fluctuating rise, closely following the pace of crude oil. Senior analysts of

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energy and chemical industry also pointed out that although the chemical industry sector rebounded on the whole, the rebound amplitude was different and the causes were also different. First of all, crude oil is located at the top of the chemical industry chain. The rebound of crude oil plays an important role in raising the cost center of the chemical industry plate as a whole, which is the main reason for the cost driven rebound. Secondly, the over fall in the early period led to excessive distortion of basis, which led to the need for basis repair, which was also an important reason for the rebound of chemical industry plate.

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in terms of single variety, the rebound of plastics has good persistence, and the rebound height is high, which is mainly due to the increase of demand for raw materials in spring agricultural film consumption season. PTA is because of the recent PX device explosion, driving prices to change the trend, out of a wave of rapid rebound Analysts said.

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are expected to fluctuate upward after the

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analysts believe that in the medium and long term, if the oil price can continue to fluctuate and rise, the chemical futures prices are also expected to continue to strengthen. In the short term, due to the worry of oversupply of crude oil, the high level of international crude oil shock finishing, the chemical plate may be strong. In terms of

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, CITIC futures pointed out that in terms of LLDPE, l1509 continued to increase its position, indicating that the market divergence has increased. From April to June, the overhaul / production change still leads to a tight linear balance. The upstream enterprises have little pressure and have room to raise prices calmly. The intermediate link consumes part of the inventory in the price shock, and the downstream inventory is not high. The price can be transmitted downward to a certain extent, and the strong performance of crude oil also provides support. High position may expand the price volatility, long-term discount or make the bull dominant, the market still has room to rise. In terms of

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PTA, the situation of tight supply may be relieved after the recent restart of yishenghua and Ningbo Taihua units. At present, the PX side will be the key and pay close attention to the ACP negotiation results. PTA plant restart and ACP negotiation will appear game, PTA or adhesive. In terms of

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methanol and PVC, the current price difference of methanol period was stable yesterday. In the short term or due to the strong performance of futures price, the price difference will maintain the spot discount pattern, and the discount range may be widened. PVC futures prices rose sharply yesterday, while spot prices were basically maintained due to downstream constraints. Therefore, the current price difference in the future has turned into a pattern of futures premium, which is expected to maintain the short-term futures premium. In terms of

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PP, the adequacy of PP capacity is still higher than that of PE, and promoting demand with price is an unavoidable problem in the future, and its price focus will change passively with LLDPE for a long time. Considering the demand in the third quarter, the production of the equipment and the difference of the main delivery place, 1000 yuan / ton may become the equilibrium position of the price difference between the two. It is suggested to buy PP and put it into hedging after the price difference is further expanded.


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