Confidence in the carbon market is recovering worldwide

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

Thomson Reuters recently released the "carbon market survey 2015", a survey of 1203 carbon market followers around the world shows that confidence in the carbon market around the world is recovering. The results of this year's

and

show that the increased market confidence since 2014 has not declined. In 2013, with falling prices and policy uncertainty, we saw an all-time low in market sentiment, but since 2014, optimism has returned, "said Anders Norden, senior analyst at Thomson Reuters, the report's author.

according to the market report, most respondents hope to adopt a cap and trade system instead of carbon taxes and subsidies by 2020. About 19% of respondents said that cap and trade was an ideal tool, while 66% thought it was the best solution we could get. However, 8% of respondents believe that the negative impact of the carbon market is still greater than the positive effect, but this is still relatively optimistic compared with the 11% opposition in 2014.

and

should be noted that, in the context of the global carbon market confidence recovery, respondents are more expected of the Chinese market. According to the report, 43% of respondents believe that the Chinese authorities will officially launch the national carbon emission trading system (ETS) as early as 2017, while another 40% believe that the system will be officially launched between 2018 and 2020. Most people believe that the issuing speed of CCER filing will slow down, but the total amount will increase steadily. Meanwhile, compared with last year, the price expectation of CCER by interviewees has also decreased. The

and

CCER issuance slowed down and the total amount increased steadily. The

and

report found that China's carbon market has been widely concerned around the world. If the Chinese government decides to start the national carbon trading market in 2016 or 2017, it will be a huge confidence boost for the global carbon market traders.

and

are more optimistic about the expected start-up time of the national carbon market compared with those in other countries. Among them, 72% of Chinese respondents believe that the Chinese authorities will officially launch the national carbon emission trading system (ETS) in 2016 or 2017, and 21% believe that the system will be officially launched between 2018 and 2020.

our survey shows that more than 70% of the participants in China's carbon market believe that the national carbon market will be launched before 2017; by contrast, nearly half of the foreign participants who focus on the Chinese market expect the national market to start in 2018-2020, "said Chai Hongliang, an analyst at Thomson Reuters Group Carbon point company The relative optimism about the start-up time of China's market is based on the fact that in the past 12 months, government officials have repeatedly issued signals to launch the national market in 2016. "

and

Chai Hongliang said that it should be pointed out that the government has not yet released the specific definition of "national carbon market", which also leads to the interviewees' cautious and optimistic attitude towards the current CCER market. According to the

and

surveys, 45% of the respondents believe that the CCER filing and issuing speed will slow down and the total amount will increase steadily. At the same time, about 10% of the respondents think that CCER issuance will accelerate rapidly from 2015 to 2016. According to Chai Hongliang's analysis, this cautious optimism is mainly based on the market's confidence in the government's commitment to long-term emission reduction and reaching the peak of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030. In terms of the price of

and

, 31% of the respondents thought that the price should be between 10 and 20 yuan, while about 15% of the respondents thought that the price would be higher than 20 yuan or between 5 and 20 yuan. But compared with the results of last year's survey, the data is more conservative. Last year, 24% of the respondents thought that the price of CCER would be higher than 20 yuan.

"compared with last year's survey results, this year's respondents' prediction of CCER price tends to be consistent: fewer respondents think that the CCER price will be lower than 5 yuan or higher than 20 yuan per ton," Chai Hongliang said. "It should be pointed out that due to the different requirements of CCER in various pilot projects, there is a situation that CCER has" same quality but different prices "in the market."

, but the uncertainty of CCER is still very large. Chai Hongliang said that in the international CDM market, the demand for China's emission reduction projects has almost exhausted. However, under the background of abundant quota supply of seven pilot projects and insufficient information disclosure, the construction progress of the national market and the strength of market total control will have a great impact on the development of CCER market. "Only when the national market is really established and the basic market data, such as emissions and total amount control of performing enterprises, are further disclosed, can the CCER market possibly produce a unified national benchmark price level, which can also provide medium and long-term investment signals to performance enterprises and emission reduction developers." The

and

confidence in the global market has been enhanced. The

and

have returned to the global perspective. The 2015 survey report shows a significant increase in confidence.

and

are the most concerned about the impact on competitiveness of enterprises. 48% of the surveyed enterprises think that the emission cost is "an impact, but not a major concern", while a quarter of enterprises think that this is one of the most decisive factors.

and

but the survey shows that the effect of the European carbon market has become obvious, with 51% of business respondents saying that the carbon market has made them reduce their emissions. At the same time, people's views on the cost efficiency of the European carbon market have changed slightly compared with last year. Last year, 52% of respondents said the carbon market was the most economical way to reduce emissions, but only 49% this year. But 45% of respondents said the cost of emissions was a decisive factor in their investment decisions.

"we believe that these survey data convey positive market signals, indicating more trading and higher prices." The report concludes that in Europe, the decision to introduce a market stabilization mechanism and a new 2030 climate target have combined to convince the market that policymakers are really taking their commitment to the European carbon market seriously. Although it will still take some time to absorb the excessive quota in the market, there is no reason to think that there will be no active trading in the European carbon market for several years.

andFor the North American carbon market, the respondents were more pessimistic. Only 17% of respondents showed confidence that the United States would achieve its climate goal of reducing emissions by 26% - 28% by 2025 under the existing policy mix. 33% of the respondents were not sure about this, while 34% thought it would not be achieved at all.

and

at the same time, although the market connection between California and Quebec has always been the focus of attention, only half of the respondents believe that the joint experience will be included in the new members by 2020. For the Paris conference to be held in December this year, 36% of the respondents think that a new international agreement on climate change may be formed, while the other 38% are against it. However, respondents from France, the host country, had high hopes for the meeting attended by global leaders, with 79% expecting an agreement, which was the most optimistic among the respondents.

and

report analysis, although the carbon market is not a core issue for the Paris conference, if most of the major emission countries can put forward corresponding targets at the negotiation table, it will send a very positive signal that the carbon market can contribute to the realization of various emission reduction targets. "


TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.