Cost support of chlorinated benzene strengthened, expected to rebound in the third quarter

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

on July 9, Sinopec's listed price of pure benzene in East China, North China, central China and South China decreased by 500 yuan (ton price, the same below), 8.8% on the same day and 11.8% per week on the same day, which triggered speculation in the industry about whether the future market of chlorinated benzene would plunge. As of last week, the domestic mainstream transaction price fell to 4750 yuan, a weekly decrease of 3%. From Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan and other markets, it is learned that the current social circulation source of goods is showing a decreasing trend. In the face of the sharp drop of raw materials and the price of chlorinated benzene, the main downstream and trading enterprises did not panic, but responded cautiously.

comprehensive information shows that the industry's views on the future market are beginning to show a positive side. Based on the main advantages of continuous parking or load reduction of professional chlorinated benzene enterprises, the increasing trend of the current cost inversion of chlorinated benzene, and the enhancement of bottom reading atmosphere of merchants, it is expected that the current sharp drop in raw materials will not lead to the diving of chlorinated benzene market, and it is possible to build a bottom and rebound in the third quarter 。

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enterprises have limited production and export sales.

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learned from the Bank of China in Jining, Shandong Province, that as a large professional production and sales enterprise of chlorinated benzene in China, BOC is still parking and waiting to start up, and there is no start-up plan within two months. In addition to its own use, Bayi Chemical Co., Ltd. in Bengbu, Anhui Province, has few sources of goods for export due to equipment maintenance and load reduction. In addition, the current unit operating rate of Nanjing Chemical Co., Ltd. is not high. Due to the stable consumption of nitrochlorobenzene, it is unlikely to enlarge the sales volume in the short term.

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are affected by the increasing consumption of inventory, and the supply sources of the market are expected to gradually decrease. The circulation sources of Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu Subei and other regions will be affected first, and the market is expected to obtain significant support. Therefore, if the supply of chlorinated benzene market continues to decrease within two months, the linkage trend with the raw material pure benzene market will start to deviate, and the possibility of bottoming out and rebounding against the trend can not be ruled out, and the short-term market opportunities will gradually emerge.

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cost inversion trend is increasing.

according to the production director of a benzene chloride enterprise in Henan Province, more than 80% of the raw materials used by domestic chlorobenzene production enterprises in the past few years were coking benzene (also known as acid pickling benzene), and the price was generally lower than that of petroleum benzene by 1000-1500 yuan, and the cost was relatively low. However, with the continuous improvement of domestic environmental protection requirements, the domestic coking benzene enterprises waste acid discharge treatment has become a major bottleneck, production costs and environmental protection costs continue to increase, coking benzene in the pure benzene series products share is also less and less. More than 90% of the manufacturers using coking benzene as raw material in the production process of chlorobenzene have been stopped, and then hydrogenated benzene and petroleum benzene processes have been adopted, and the cost is more than 10% higher than that of the old process. Therefore, some small and medium-sized benzene chloride plants continue to be in the state of cost inversion. This is one of the reasons why the benzene chloride plants in Henan, Hubei and Shandong have been shut down or shut down successively.

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therefore, although the prices of crude petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene have been greatly reduced this time, the cost pressure has not been reduced for the benzene chloride enterprises whose operating rate is not high, and the cost hanging state of some chlorinated benzene enterprises is still increasing.

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in addition, at present, coking enterprises are severely limiting production and crude benzene resources are limited, and the international pure benzene market has also stopped falling and stabilized. Industry insiders predict that there is still a downward trend in the supply capacity of crude benzene resources in the short term, which will form a basic support for the pure benzene market, and the space for further exploration is limited. The cost support of chlorinated benzene in the future will also be strengthened, and it is unlikely that there will be a substantial drop.

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merchants' bottom reading atmosphere strengthened

according to a senior chlorinated benzene trader in Jiangsu Province, affected by the shutdown of BOC device in Jining, Shandong Province, it is expected that the supply source may decline. In the period of low purchase cost after the current price has just been lowered, some traders are prepared to prepare goods in advance to prevent the rebound market in the future market due to insufficient supply. In addition, the recent economic favorable policies to stabilize the stock market have achieved initial results. Strengthening the liquidity of the capital market will also play a positive role in promoting the operating rate of downstream enterprises including chlorinated benzene.

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are affected by this, and traders are becoming more and more interested in the bottom copy of chlorinated benzene. In the near future, some sources of goods will flow into powerful trading enterprises, which will not participate in the market circulation in the short term, and the relatively available supply in the market will decrease again.

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however, according to the analysis of insiders, the short-term market demand will also shrink significantly due to the planned overhaul and shutdown of Zhonghua chemical industry in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province, on the 18th of this month, which greatly alleviates the phenomenon of cut-off of available supply due to the shutdown of Chlorobenzene unit, and there will be no sudden large-scale fluctuation of the market. It is expected that in the third quarter, the possibility of narrow range finishing of chlorobenzene will be greater.


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