Delayed production of new capacity and shortage of ethylene glycol supply

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

still remembers that at the end of 2014, many ethylene glycol manufacturers released production plans, especially in the second quarter. However, with the passage of time, the new faces that were agreed at the beginning of the second quarter were delayed to the end of the quarter. In the case of delayed production of new production capacity, the shutdown and maintenance of the original units showed an increasing trend. Besides the planned maintenance, unplanned shutdown was also common. The shortage of supply has become the main theme of the recent ethylene glycol market fundamentals. Whether the fundamentals will reverse in the coming May has become the anxiety of the industry.

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increased more production capacity in the second quarter, but it was basically concentrated in June, and the new market supply in May was about 25000 tons. Compared with the current port inventory level of 550000 tons near the port, the recent market supply of ethylene glycol is still weak. Most of the maintenance devices of

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will be restarted in May, but the restart is basically concentrated in the later part of the month. In addition, the restart time of some new devices may also be delayed. Therefore, it is expected that the growth rate of the total market volume in May is limited. The increase in market supply was largely reflected in June.

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, but the overall demand of downstream polyester has been stable in recent years. According to the current 78.68% of polyester operating load (the production base is 46.335 million tons), the monthly demand of ethylene glycol in polyester field is about 1.05 million tons. In the near future, the market inventory of ethylene glycol market is maintained around 550000 tons, and the import equivalent is maintained at 680000-700000 tons. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, there is still a gap of about 100000 tons in the ethylene glycol market in the short term.

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in addition, the recent accidental shutdown and maintenance of foreign plants and the subsequent routine shutdown and maintenance in South Asia will also cause certain pressure on the supply of downstream polyester factories. It is reported that there has been a delay in the arrival of contracted quantities of the factory. Therefore, the overall ethylene glycol market in May is still preferred.

in a comprehensive view, although the recent ethylene glycol market due to the end of the month delivery, many single profit flight, the market has fallen, but the analysis shows that the basic support of the ethylene glycol market still exists. Although there is room for increase in inventory at the beginning of May, the range will not be too large, and the market as a whole is still in the process of de stocking, and there is still a gap. In May, polyester factories and terminal fabrics The start-up load in the manufacturing sector is expected to remain stable, so there is no need to worry about the market demand. Therefore, in the medium and long term, the fundamental performance of ethylene glycol market is still stable, and the recent decline in production and sales is basically the normal contraction after the large production and sales volume in the early stage.


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