Demand fundamentals are difficult to improve, and toluene is difficult to break the deadlock in the short term

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

in the overall situation of the chemical market downturn, the price of toluene in East China fell 250 yuan (ton price, the same below), to 5700-5800 yuan, a drop of 4.2%. On June 30, the price continued to drop to 5575-5600 yuan. In the future, the decline window of toluene may be difficult to stop. In the case of no improvement in the demand side and fueled by the macro level, toluene may continue to maintain a weak position, and it is difficult to turn over in the short term. The macro level of

and

is short of crude oil, and the trend of

and

toluene is under pressure. It makes people feel strange: the news that the central bank has cut interest rate by 0.25 points and directional reduction of reserve rate by 0.5 points has just been announced. Under the background of such major favorable factors, toluene has gone out of such a bad market!

and

in this regard, director Zhu of PetroChina Northeast sales company explained that, because the overall real economy is weak and the market is slightly insensitive to the favorable reaction of interest rate reduction after many times of interest rate cuts, the direct boosting effect of the interest rate reduction is limited. Although there are expectations to stimulate real estate and other industries, the impact is still to be observed. In terms of international crude oil,

and

, Greece's debt negotiation has entered the final moment. If there is a default, the US dollar is likely to start to strengthen due to the pressure falling of euro. This will put the price of commodities such as crude oil under relative pressure. At present, Greek debt and other issues are still a major negative factor in crude oil prices.

and

crude oil, as the chemical market oriented standard, is also the upstream raw material of toluene, which has a great impact on the toluene Market. Under the background of insufficient supply of energy in some member countries, especially in the context of sustained supply recovery in some countries, OPEC has maintained a slow recovery in energy supply. The supply and demand side will continue to benefit the oil market in the future. If some progress is made in Iran's nuclear negotiations, the relaxation of the scope of sanctions imposed by western countries will increase its oil output and aggravate the worry of oversupply in the oil market. Therefore, in terms of cost, the impact on toluene is still empty. The market supply of

and

is sufficient, and the impact of overhaul is limited. From the perspective of

and

, the focus of toluene Market negotiation continues to move downward. Although the port inventory is around 72000 tons, which is relatively low compared with the same period, the weak downstream demand makes the overall negotiation atmosphere stalemate, and most traders hold a wait-and-see situation for the future market. Some businesses said that late June had become the weakest period in the first half of this year.

and

director Zhu said that although the supply of toluene in the port is not large, but with the restart of the refinery after the overhaul, the supply of toluene will be supplemented in July and August, and the circulating supply will increase. Therefore, the market in the market without guidance, mainly to shipping.

it is reported that the 120000t toluene / 380000t xylene unit of Qingdao large oil refining unit will be overhauled in late June, and the expected maintenance period will be 30 days; Liaotong chemical industry will stop maintenance on June 25 for 30 days, and the aromatics unit line 1 with a capacity of 16000 tons of toluene will be shut down for a long time. Manager Zhang of Jilin Baoyuan chemical trading company believes that, according to common sense, the shutdown and maintenance of these devices will form a favorable situation on the supply side, but in the case of relatively sufficient supply side, the market response to this is calm and has little effect on boosting. The demand of "spekds" and "spkds" is not close to the "low" demand of "spkds" in the near future. In terms of oil transfer, July and August belong to the off-season of oil transfer. The prices of refined oil products of local refineries have dropped continuously, and the whole oil transfer market is in a downturn. Although some of them are still receiving goods at a low level, they are mostly purchased on demand, and the quantity of p-toluene is limited. At the same time, due to the low price of some oil blending raw materials such as MTBE, mixed aromatics and other products, some oil distributors reduced the purchase and use of toluene for the sake of cost advantage. In terms of

and

TDI, three TDI companies will carry out maintenance in July. Among them, the TDI capacity of Shanghai Bayer Polyurethane Co., Ltd. is 250000 tons, that of Cangzhou Dahua is 150000 tons, and that of Gansu Yinguang chemical industry is 100000 tons. These three companies account for 64% of the total capacity of TDI, and the maintenance period is about 20-45 days, which will reduce the consumption of toluene to a certain extent. Due to the weak terminal demand of

and

, the overall operating rate of fine chemicals such as benzyl chloride and nitrotoluene is reduced. Some enterprises are faced with the risk of stock increase, and it is possible to continue to reduce the operating rate, and the demand for toluene will be reduced. Generally speaking,

and

, the toluene market will still be in a weak medium term. If there is no significant positive in the short term, the market will continue to be weak and there is no hope of reversal.


TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.