Global ethylene supply and demand situation and market prospect

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
Supply and demand profile. Since 2000,

and

, the supply and demand of polyethylene in China have increased rapidly. The output of polyethylene increased from less than 5 million tons in 2003 to 10.17 million tons in 2014. Among them, the production capacity increased more in 2009. The apparent consumption in recent five years has maintained a gradual increase trend, with an average annual growth rate of 5.87%. The import volume also increased year by year. In 2014, the import volume reached 9.1 million tons, and the import dependence of polyethylene exceeded 40%. According to the statistics of Zhuo Chuang information, affected by the expansion of domestic coal to olefin capacity, the apparent consumption of PE in 2014 was 22 million tons, an increase of 12.5% compared with 2013. The domestic supply and demand situation of ethylene glycol, another important downstream product of

and

, is more worrying. In 2013, the domestic ethylene glycol production capacity and output were 5 million tons and 3.68 million tons respectively, while the apparent consumption reached 11.92 million tons, and the import dependence was as high as 70%.

and

from the perspective of the two important downstream products of ethylene, China's ethylene equivalent demand is large, and the lack of ethylene supply leads to a high degree of dependence on imports of downstream products.

d ethylene price trend in the future

because ethylene is the downstream product of crude oil, the price of ethylene is largely affected by the trend of crude oil, but it also has its own characteristics. Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, America and Europe are the most important regions for ethylene price. From the perspective of trend, the price trend of these four regions is generally consistent, but there are still some differences in rhythm. Last year's sharp drop in crude oil caused ethylene prices to drop by about 50%, but the decline was smaller than that of crude oil. The regional differences are reflected in the fact that the decline of ethylene in the United States is larger than that in Asia, and the elasticity is weak, which is mainly affected by the sharp decline of raw material cost of shale gas in the United States. However, the main units in Asia still use naphtha, and due to the impact of plant shutdown, the supply and demand is tight, resulting in the price rebounding rapidly from $900 / T to $1300 / T, almost recovering the previous lost land. Due to the maintenance of ethylene plants in Asia and the Middle East, the supply and demand are tight, the price is rising, and the profit is greatly increased, which is one of the reasons for the strong price of domestic polyethylene and other products. The domestic ethylene import dependence of

and

is increasing year by year, and the import dependence of polyethylene and glycol, the main downstream products of ethylene, is much higher than that of raw material ethylene, indicating that the domestic ethylene supply is insufficient and the downstream demand is still good. Under the tight global supply and demand pattern of ethylene, the domestic market may maintain a strong trend. According to incomplete statistics, a small amount of petrochemical ethylene production capacity and a large number of coal to olefin and coal to ethylene glycol projects will be put into production from 2015 to 2016, which is expected to change the situation that domestic ethylene demand is more dependent on imports. "


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