How to choose olefin feedstock route in the period of low oil price

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
Prices have risen by more than 35%. Compared with the high price in September last year, the domestic propylene price has only dropped by about 20%, far less than the drop of oil price in the same period. The price difference between propylene and raw material propane once reached about 3000 yuan / ton. Therefore, propane dehydrogenation industry has become one of the few investment spots under low oil price.

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it is understood that with the rapid development of LPG production in the Middle East and shale gas production in the United States, global ethane, LPG and other light hydrocarbon raw materials show a diversified development trend. At present, about 1 / 5 propylene in the Middle East uses propane as raw material, and its propane price is set based on fixed natural gas price, which is less affected by international oil price.

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since the oil price fell sharply, the production status of domestic coal chemical enterprises has become the focus of attention of the industry. The 2014 financial report disclosed by China Shenhua not long ago showed that during the reporting period, the total output of polyethylene and polypropylene of Baotou coal chemical company reached 525000 tons, the sales volume of polyethylene was 265500 tons, an increase of 1.2%, the sales price was 8871.8 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.4%; the sales volume of polypropylene was 268100 tons, an increase of 0.1%, and the sales price was 8628.9 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.3%. In addition, in 2014, the total sales volume of the company increased by 0.15%, and the gross profit rate only decreased by 0.5%, indicating that the coal to olefin project of the company has not been greatly affected.

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in this regard, Cao Jianjun explained: "the estimated loss of coal to olefin route refers to the overall situation of the industry. This conclusion is based on the data calculation, but each enterprise in actual production is facing different situations, so there will be certain differences. For example, the coal resources of Shenhua Baotou coal to olefin company are reliably guaranteed and are close to the pit mouth, which is conducive to reducing the raw material cost and transportation cost of the enterprise. In spite of the sharp drop in oil prices, as long as the current costs can be covered, the coal to olefin projects already in operation will not be stopped easily. These projects should play a role. " In addition, methanol to olefins enterprises in China are developing rapidly. As of 2014, the annual production capacity of methanol to olefins in China has reached 4.68 million tons. Among the 2 million tons of new production capacity in 2014, except for Shandong Yuhuang and Shandong Shouguang, the rest of the projects are in Northwest China.

"some domestic chemical industrial parks do not have integrated refining and ethylene plants. The olefins required by them must be purchased. Short distance transportation can still be carried through pipelines, but medium and long-distance transportation will greatly increase production costs. However, most of the domestic coastal chemical parks are close to ports, with perfect liquid chemical terminals and storage facilities. By importing methanol to build corresponding olefin production units, chemical enterprises lacking upstream crude oil resources can realize the diversification of raw materials. However, relying on the advantages of rich coal resources in Western China, the appropriate development of methanol to olefin industry can also optimize the local industrial structure Cao Jianjun said. It is the key for

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to find their own advantages. Although the profitability of

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has improved to a certain extent, petrochemical enterprises under low oil prices can not rest assured. On the one hand, the Middle East, India and other regions are planning large-scale petrochemical projects, and domestic petrochemical enterprises are facing fierce competition; on the other hand, the future international oil price is unlikely to maintain a long-term low situation.

it is understood that under low oil prices, the development of oil refining in the Middle East is expected to become a probable event. At present, some Middle East countries have put forward ambitious plans to double oil refining, shifting from single resource export to downstream processing. It is estimated that the refining capacity of the Middle East will increase from 380 million tons in 2013 to about 600 million tons in 2030. The refining capacity of

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in 2013 reached 220 million tons, an increase of about 100 million tons compared with 2000, and the output of refined oil was 150 million tons, an increase of 90 million tons compared with 2000. It is expected that India's capacity will continue to increase in the future, and a typical feature of its refining industry is the large-scale installation. In addition to the above areas, Japan, South Korea and other countries have also targeted the Chinese market. In the interview with

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, many experts predicted that the international oil price in 2016 will be maintained at 60-80 US dollars / barrel. Although the oil price continues to decline, petroleum to olefin enterprises have obvious advantages, but in the long run, the oil price will stabilize at a certain data level, and the downward momentum will gradually weaken.

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in 2014, affected by the economic weakness at home and abroad, the consumption growth rate of domestic major petrochemical products decreased to varying degrees, and the growth rate of ethylene equivalent consumption decreased by about 1.4 percentage points compared with the previous year. While the domestic consumption is slowing down, people's requirements for product specialization and refinement rate are increasing year by year. Taking polyethylene and polypropylene as an example, in 2014, the proportion of their special materials in the total consumption was about 52%, which was significantly increased by 14 percentage points compared with 2011. In this regard, many experts suggest that petrochemical enterprises should continue to improve product quality by deepening refining and chemical integration.

"in the future, domestic oil refining, ethylene, aromatics and other products still have demand growth and development space. Although the construction of coal chemical industry slows down, the existing capacity will still play a certain role. In the face of fierce market competition at home and abroad, petrochemical enterprises can shorten the distance from low-value raw materials to high-value products through refining and chemical integration strategy, so as to maximize economic value Cao Jianjun said so.

"some enterprises make full use of resource advantages, some enterprises specially develop special brand products, and others extend the industrial chain through deep processing. Why do some enterprises make money while others make a mess? A common point of successful enterprises is that they have found their own advantages accurately. " Wang Jianguo said that in the cost calculation of many domestic coal chemical projects, the market price of pithead coal is often taken as the standard. However, due to the high transportation cost of domestic coal, the terminal price often doubles the pithead price, so there should be some space for production cost. "


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