How to grasp the future direction of petroleum coke

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

[introduction] after the crazy rise in March, whether domestic bulk commodities can continue to rise in April, and how to judge the market trend of petroleum coke market after the range fluctuation trend.

There are signs of a positive economic environment, but there is a risk of callback.

Refinery inventory and operating conditions are constantly changing.

The next trend of the petroleum coke market is concerned by all parties.

Combined with the impact of the supply and demand of petroleum coke, industry insiders and our website have some divergent views on the future market of petroleum coke.

We will make a corresponding interpretation of the petroleum coke market through a series of surveys on inventory, refinery startup and shutdown, and our views on this website.

In this issue, Zhuo Chuang information has conducted an inventory survey on petroleum coke products in domestic refineries.

According to the survey data of Zhuo Chuang, all refineries are still dominated by low inventory operation, accounting for about 70% of the total investigation.

the number of medium inventory manufacturers only accounts for about 20% of the total number.

the number of manufacturers with high inventory is about 10%.

Summary of start-up and shutdown of coking units in domestic refineries refinery maintenance capacity (10000 tons) startup and shutdown time of regional Qingyuan group started on December 18, Shandong Shouguang Luqing 150, February 5, Shandong Zhonghua Hongrun 100, overhaul on February 10, Shandong Province Dongming Petrochemical (Runze) 170 overhauling on February 29, 100 in Jinao, Hubei, Shandong Province, overhauled on February 29, Zhonghua Hongrun 100 along the river, started on March 31, Shandong Xintai Petrochemical Co., Ltd., 50, started in Shandong Province on March 31 From the above table, it can be seen from the above table that among the refineries of various groups in China in January, the main trend was still to start work, and few manufacturers were shut down for maintenance.

The start-up and shut-down of the main refineries were carried out as planned.

The international crude oil was adjusted downward again.

The decrease in cost stimulated the profits of coking units of refineries to maintain a large profit margin, and the number of manufacturers to resume production in the later stage would continue to increase.

As of March 31, there was no change in the main business units.

Sinopec's operating rate was 80.

29%, and Sinopec's actual external supply rate was 60.04%. The overall operating rate of PetroChina is 56.

26%, and the actual supply rate of PetroChina is 50.63%. In terms of local refining, Xintai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. resumed production with a capacity of 500000 tons of coking.

The operating rate of the whole country's georefining was 54.

04%, up 2.

93% compared with last week, and that of Shandong was 51.

58%, 3.

59% higher than last week.

The rise and fall of international oil price is still the dominant factor.

It is expected that the gasoline and diesel market will continue to stabilize next week with limited fluctuation.

In the next step, the new and old plants of Dongming Petrochemical Company will start and shut down alternately, and other refineries have no plans to overhaul or resume production.

Zhuo Chuang expects that there will be no significant change in the operating rate of refining in the mainland in the short term.

According to Zhuo Chuang survey, up to now, in this round of price adjustment cycle, 60% of the industry insiders see the future market stable, while the bearish proportion is 30%, and the bullish proportion only accounts for 10%.

In terms of supply, the international crude oil price has turned downward.

Theoretically, it is estimated that the profits of coking units will be increased, and the number of manufacturers returning to production in April will continue to increase.

In the short term, the coking operating rate will be high to maintain a stable situation.

In terms of demand, the terminal industry is likely to continue to rush high, but there are downside risks.

In terms of mentality, the downstream price of petroleum coke rose to a relatively high level, and all parties had a high wait-and-see mood, and carbon production enterprises purchased on demand.

In terms of oil consolidation period, the market has ushered in a period of consolidation.