Industrial structure determines the trend differentiation of chemicals

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

from 2011 to the first half of 2014, the trend of chemical products appeared serious differentiation. Due to overcapacity, PTA and PVC began to decline unilaterally, while the self-sufficiency rate of plastics and PP was low, and the concentration of production capacity was high, so the price was almost in a fixed range. In the second half of 2014, crude oil prices fell sharply, chemicals suffered the same fate, and prices were basically cut back. However, in 2015, the price trend of chemical products is divided again, which can be clearly seen from the arrangement of futures contracts. PTA and methanol are in positive order, while plastic and PP contract discount. The reason for this phenomenon is that the industrial structure of various chemical products is not the same, and the impact of coal chemical industry on the varieties is not the same. The industrial structure of

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is different, and the basic fundamentals are divided. In 1992, China changed from planned economy to market economy. With the improvement of efficiency, the economy continues to grow at a high speed. In the early 1990s, the total economic volume was small, and the impact of the increase in demand on the supply and demand pattern of the chemical industry was relatively limited, and the chemical industry could basically achieve self-sufficiency. In 2000, after nearly ten years of accumulation, the total economic volume reached 9977.63 billion yuan, more than three times higher than that in 1992. In addition, with China's accession to the WTO, the total trade volume has increased significantly. Under the background of the rapid increase of domestic and foreign demand, the supply of chemical products is gradually in short supply, the self-sufficiency rate is gradually declining, the price of chemical products is gradually rising, and the enterprise has a good profit. Driven by the interests, domestic chemical devices began to be put into production in large areas. However, due to the fact that it takes several years for chemical plants to be officially put into operation, and large chemical enterprises often have the background of state-owned enterprises, they pay more attention to the local interests in the process of investment and construction, and less consideration is given to the future supply and demand pattern of the market. As a result, the chemical production capacity has been put on a stampede around 2010, and the self-sufficiency rate has risen sharply, and the fundamental factor is insufficient from the previous supply It turns into oversupply.

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are specific to chemical products, and the production capacity pattern is also different. The production of plastics and PP is mainly concentrated in PetroChina and Sinopec, with less market competition and low self-sufficiency rate; in PTA and PVC industries, the proportion of private capital is large, the competition is fierce, and the overcapacity is serious. At present, PTA, PVC self-sufficiency rate of more than 98%, can be considered to be fully self-sufficient. In view of the strict examination on the admittance system of overcapacity industry in China, the probability of further increase of PTA and PVC capacity is low. The rise of

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coal to olefins has changed the relationship between supply and demand of chemical products. The crude oil imported from China mainly comes from the Middle East, and the situation in the regions passing through is often unstable, which brings uncertainty to China's crude oil import. In addition, the domestic oil layer is deeper than the surface, the reserves are less, and the crude oil production cost is high. In order to get rid of the uncertainty brought about by energy for economic growth, coal chemical industry partial replacement of oil chemical industry came into being.

at present, the frontier of coal chemical industry replacing oil industry is coal to olefin, which is also the core field of coal replacing oil. Coal to olefins mainly use methanol to produce olefins, which will have a profound impact on the pattern of domestic chemicals. It also determines that the demand for methanol will be greatly increased and the supply of olefins will be increased in the future. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, methanol drives upward, while plastics and PP drive downward.

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the author believes that the sharp fall in crude oil prices in the second half of 2014 accelerated the differentiation of chemicals. In the later stage, due to different supply and demand patterns, the strong trend of plastics and PP will shift their focus, while PTA and methanol in the low price area are expected to "fly high".


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