Low demand depresses the market and ethylene oxide will continue to decline

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

at 21:15 on June 12, a deflagration accident occurred in the Dena glycol / butyl ether unit in Nanjing Chemical Industrial Park, and the EO unit stopped, breaking the calm of last weekend. But in the current market demand is not warm, the fire failed to trigger traders to do more passion. The market price of EO remains at 8900-9000 yuan (ton price, the same below).

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accidents have limited benefits.

it is understood that the fire occurred in the plant involved an old plant with a capacity of 60000 T / A, while the EO unit with a capacity of 100000 t / A in the new plant is still in normal operation.

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are not easy to transport and have strong regional characteristics, so the domestic EO capacity layout is not very reasonable. Among them, East China accounted for 58.65%, Northeast China accounted for 14.29%, North China accounted for 10.64%, South China accounted for 7.72%, central China accounted for 7.94%, and Northwest China accounted for 0.75%. At about 6 o'clock on April 21, the EO / ethylene glycol t-430 tower of Yangzi Petrochemical olefin plant exploded. At the end of May, the maintenance and restart just started, and the accident happened again in Dena unit. However, the production capacity involved in this time accounts for a relatively small proportion. Although the incident occurred in the main production capacity areas and consumption areas, it will not have a significant impact on the downstream demand. Therefore, the market basically maintains the balance of supply and demand, and the industry response is flat.

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in April, the explosion of Yangzi Petrochemical Plant led to the increase of EO price by 1000 yuan, and the start-up in may also led to the reduction of EO price by 1000 yuan again. The accident has limited positive effect on the current depressed market. In addition, the overhaul of 110 kt / a EO unit of Jilin Petrochemical Company has been restarted, and the 200000 t / a unit of Yadong Petrochemical Company will be put into operation in the middle of the year, so it is difficult to reappear the tight situation of market supply. " Director Zhu of PetroChina Northeast sales company said.

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manufacturers had already limited production and insured prices. At the end of May, the EO market fell sharply twice in less than a week, with an accumulative range of more than 10%. Manufacturers in order to avoid the market downturn again crisis, reduce the operating rate. "Many EO units turn to ethylene glycol in order to pursue factory profits and reduce market risks. "When the profit situation improves, the EO will be produced again," said Wang Hao, head of Jilin Petrochemical's EO unit.

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in recent years, China's total production capacity of EO has rapidly increased from 1.3 million tons in 2005 to 6.5 million tons in 2014; the production capacity of commodity EO has rapidly increased from 400000 tons in 2005 to 3 million tons in 2014. It is estimated that by the end of this year, China's total EO production capacity will reach 7.9 million tons, and commodity EO will reach 4.4 million tons. As a result, the price of EO has gradually dropped from 17700 yuan / ton in 2008 to 7000 yuan in early 2015, a decrease of 60.5%. The phenomenon that

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and EO have dominated the market in the past 10 years has become a history. In the next few years, the supply and demand pattern of domestic EO will continue to exceed demand. The starting load will still show a downward trend, and EO price advantage will no longer be available. " Wang Hao said. The sluggish demand for

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depresses the market. The sluggish terminal demand of

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EO market is the biggest stumbling block for the improvement of the market. The downstream nonionic surfactant and washing industry are in a weak position. At present, the market enthusiasm to pick up goods is weakened, the demand is reduced, the factory operating rate is 40% to 60%, the manufacturers have overstocked inventory, and the pressure of price reduction is great, forming a bleak situation of "taking orders only and price second". Downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, resisting the rising price of upstream raw materials, and high price transactions are suppressed.

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are the largest downstream ethanolamine of EO. Most manufacturers adopt the sales mode of limiting production and price, discussing with sales and one single negotiation to reduce market risk. In the case of no improvement in terminal demand, the price of ethanolamine gradually decreased. Cost transmission is hindered, which is difficult to form support for EO market.

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raw material price rise supports the market of

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, but the ethylene price of EO raw material increases, which gives EO market support in terms of cost. It is understood that after entering March, ethylene production has decreased significantly. In March, China's ethylene production was 1.46 million tons, a decrease of 50.5% on a month on month basis; in April, China's ethylene production was 1.23 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% and a month on month decrease of 15.8%. The average daily output and year-on-year growth rate both broke two-year lows.

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at present, the domestic economic downward pressure is intensifying, the environmental protection policy is becoming stricter, the new production capacity of the industry is insufficient, the profit of coal chemical project is reduced, and the enthusiasm of increasing ethylene production capacity is weakened; the fluctuation pattern of crude oil price also has a certain negative impact on the downstream industries. The output of ethylene decreased, which made ethylene firm and increased steadily. Under the support of cost, EO manufacturers have strong willingness to support the price. Although the accident of Dana device has limited positive effects on the market and there are many bad news in the market, in the short term, the EO market is not likely to fall. " Wang Hao said.

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Jilin Petrochemical's 159000 T / a ethylene glycol and 60000 T / a ethylene oxide units have been overhauled. In this overhaul, catalyst replacement, dealdehyde resin replacement and 16 technical transformation were carried out to ensure that the unit can meet the next production and marketing cycle in good condition.


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