Natural gas falls into a strange circle of development

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
Only a few months after the

, the price of natural gas has come down again. Recently, it was reported in the media that the price department of the national development and Reform Commission has studied the price reduction scheme of natural gas, and the price adjustment is expected to be implemented on October 1, but the specific price adjustment range is still under discussion.

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are worth mentioning. As early as April 2015, the national development and Reform Commission reduced the maximum gate station price of incremental gas by 0.44 yuan per cubic meter, increased the price of stock gas by 0.04 yuan, and realized the merger of non civil gas prices.

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according to public data, in the first quarter of 2015, domestic natural gas consumption was 50.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, while domestic natural gas production was 35.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; and the import volume of natural gas was 16.0 billion cubic meters, up 16.5% year-on-year. In the first half of 2015, China's natural gas consumption reached 90.6 billion cubic meters, an increase of 2.1%.

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from the above data, we can see that the growth rate of domestic production and import has exceeded the growth rate of consumption.

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although natural gas is a high-quality resource, looking at the development of natural gas in recent years, it seems that the development of natural gas has entered a "strange circle" since 2013. The upstream production capacity developed rapidly, but the demand gradually slowed down, resulting in excess. In July of the same year, after the price reform of natural gas was implemented in China, the price of natural gas rose rapidly, and its advantage no longer existed.

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in recent years, China has been introducing relevant policies to promote energy structure adjustment in order to reduce carbon emissions and realize green and low-carbon development. The state has also been adjusting the structure of imported energy. Some people in the

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industry believe that the state's control of imported energy prices also shows that there is still room for domestic natural gas prices to fall. In addition, the international oil price continues to go low, which lowers the international natural gas price, so it is imperative to lower the domestic gas price.

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have been reported in the media that production enterprises have changed from "fixed sales based on production" to "fixed production by sales", and the relationship between supply and demand has been reversed, and the "gas shortage" of China's natural gas has suddenly changed into "shortage of gas". Industry observers of

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believe that the situation of oversupply of natural gas has arrived, which may last until 2020, and the surplus volume is about 30 billion to 40 billion cubic meters. Why has the relationship between supply and demand of

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changed? "The main reason for the change in the relationship between supply and demand of natural gas in China is the oversupply of natural gas due to the slowdown of market demand." Song Zhichen, a researcher in the energy industry of CIC consultant, said in an interview with China national economic news that most industries using natural gas are more sensitive to gas prices. The high domestic natural gas prices make it difficult for some users to bear. Therefore, they choose to use less or not, which has a partial impact on the demand for natural gas. In addition, the continuous decline of oil prices also makes natural gas gradually lose its price advantage Potential.

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in the face of the current situation of oversupply of natural gas, song Zhichen said that the state should change the current situation of the industry's oversupply by accelerating the transformation of energy structure. First of all, in order to control air pollution and reduce haze weather, we should promote the use of natural gas as a clean energy and speed up the progress of "coal to gas" project; in addition, in view of the high price of natural gas, relevant enterprises should take active measures to reduce the price, rather than relying entirely on market regulation. At the same time, it can also expand the use of natural gas in the field of transportation and create demand increment.

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some experts say that the transformation speed of traffic gas is simple, and it can reduce the pollution of motor vehicles, which is more feasible from a practical point of view.

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at the same time, the reporter noted that according to China's relevant planning, the number of LNG ships will reach 10000, but at present, the number is still small, and there is still a great development space and potential. Some experts in

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believe that the adjustment of energy structure has ushered in a "window period". How to diversify the use of natural gas is a major issue worthy of exploration and consideration. Song Zhichen of

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pointed out that in the future, we should actively and steadily promote the reform of natural gas price formation mechanism, promote the development of unconventional natural gas, change the industrial chain structure to a competitive structure, and promote natural gas enterprises to reduce their prices with fierce market competition. In addition, it is necessary to ensure the future demand by various ways of resource acquisition, strengthen the connection between the natural gas industry and other energy industries, as well as the overall connection of all links in the natural gas industry chain, so as to provide a basis for the effective operation of the market.


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