Negative market dominates, butadiene price still has room to fall

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
After nearly half a year's slow brewing and climbing, the butadiene price finally broke through the 10000 yuan (ton price, the same below) level in mid June, and the high point once reached 10500 yuan. Unfortunately, the market price of 10000 yuan did not last. Butadiene started a rapid decline mode in only half a month, with weekly declines of about 700 yuan. At present, the quotation in East China market is between 7000 yuan and 7300 yuan, which is 3200 yuan lower than the peak in June, with a decrease of 30.48%. In the future, the negative still dominates, and butadiene still has room for decline. After the middle and late days of "spekds", the company's "northeast" company mainly started to sell butadiene due to weak demand in China's oil market. After the butadiene increased sharply in the early stage, the downstream cost transmission was not smooth, the profits of synthetic rubber were damaged, and some of them were shipped upside down. The rubber enterprises mainly purchased on demand and digested the inventory in the early stage, and the overall operating load was low. In July, the mutual supply of petrochemicals decreased and the export sales increased. At the same time, the external market also fell sharply, and has now fallen back to around $1100, which depresses the domestic market trend. Under the negative situation in many aspects, butadiene prices staged a capricious decline. From the perspective of

and

, the butadiene market is still dominated by bad news. In terms of supply, the traditional maintenance season in May and June has passed, and the plant restart will lead to an expected increase in supply. According to statistics, Zhongsha petrochemical, Qilu Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical and other butadiene units operate normally, and the operating rate remains high. "Liaotong chemical (Panjin Ethylene) butadiene plant with an annual output of 120000 tons was shut down from June 24, and the original planned restart time was July 30 In addition, the crude oil price has remained low in recent years, and the cost of the traditional C4 extraction process has been significantly reduced compared with the previous period. If the crude oil price is relatively low for a long time, the reduction of butadiene production caused by light raw materials will also be weakened. " Zhu said.

and

are also facing the end of maintenance season. At the end of July, most of the butadiene plants in Japan, South Korea and other Asian countries will be overhauled, and the shipment to Hong Kong may increase, which is detrimental to the domestic market to a certain extent. In terms of import, according to customs data, China's butadiene import volume was 20575.8 tons in May, reaching 132359.6 tons in the first five months. With the restart of foreign devices, the import volume will also increase, and the domestic market competition will be more intense. The supply of

and

is expected to increase, but the demand is not expected to be smooth. The downstream of butadiene is synthetic rubber, and the demand for synthetic rubber depends on the tire market. 40% of China's tire production is exported, of which the United States accounts for nearly three components. The release of the final verdict of the US double anti suit means that the door of the US market will again be closed to Chinese enterprises. The restrictions on tire export may further affect the consumption of upstream, downstream and peripheral products. At present, this chain reaction is not only transmitted to the field of synthetic rubber, but also to the butadiene market. Although enterprises in the field of synthetic rubber have taken measures such as production reduction and parking, there is still no sign of stopping the decline. Synthetic rubber is suffering, and the demand for butadiene is greatly reduced. From the perspective of

and

, July and August are the traditional off-season of rubber industry. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber market will remain weak in the short term. As the end of the month is approaching, it is not ruled out that the planned households will reduce their prices to complete the plan of this month. However, from the perspective of current downstream demand, even if the price is reduced, it is still difficult to improve the purchasing surface and inject vitality into butadiene. " Zhu said. It is difficult to say that the future market of butadiene is optimistic. Both supply and demand have not been improved. In addition, crude oil price is also in a weak position, and the industry is more cautious. It is expected that the butadiene market will mainly fluctuate at a low level.


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Tag: Bad luck dominates