Oil prices soar in the external market, and domestic petrochemical products are flying together

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

was stimulated by the lower than expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventory, and the U.S. WTI oil price, which has not performed for a long time, rose by more than 5%, and reached a new price since this year. As of the end of the 15th, the price of the may contract, the main part of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), rose 3.1 USD / barrel to 56.39 USD / barrel, up 5.82%. London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose $1.89/barrel to close at $60.32/barrel, up 3.23%. Although

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began last year, the "resilience" of global oil prices has gradually emerged since the beginning of this year. Together with the sharp rebound on the 15th, the US WTI crude oil price has achieved a "five consecutive positive", with the cumulative increase of US $5.97/barrel or 11.84%, and the Brent oil price also rose by 4.77 USD / barrel or 8.59%. From this point of view, will the global oil price, which was shown as a "mourner" in the past, usher in "dawn"?

"overnight external oil prices rebounded strongly, mainly driven by the US EIA inventory data less than market expectations." Wang Wei, a researcher at a large seller's institution in Shanghai, told futures daily that EIA inventory data showed that US crude oil inventories rose to 483 million barrels last week, the highest level since 1982, but the increase in inventories was much less than market expectations. "This may mean that the US crude oil supply, which was greatly increased by the shale gas revolution in the early stage, is slowing down, which certainly has a supporting effect on oil prices."

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, while the pressure on the supply side gradually eased, good news also came from the demand side. Also on the 15th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report saying that it had raised its forecast of global oil demand in 2015 by 90000 barrels to 93.6 million barrels, benefiting from the better global economy.

"oil prices have rebounded continuously in recent years, but it is obviously too early to think that oil prices will turn around on this." Li ZHOULEI, assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, said that according to past experience, the terminal demand of the US market will gradually increase in the second quarter of each year, which has a driving effect on oil prices. At the same time, it should also be noted that after the spring, major refineries in the United States will have regular maintenance, and their downstream crude oil consumption demand will sharply decrease, and crude oil inventory may further increase. "Although the U.S. dollar index has been" breaking 100 "for two times this year, the rebound of crude oil prices will encounter great pressure when the US dollar index as a whole enters a strong cycle." The continuous rebound of

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crude oil also led to the collective strength of domestic downstream petrochemical products. By the end of the 16th, methanol futures, known as "small crude oil", topped the domestic commodity futures market with a 4.01% increase. Plastics, PVC, PTA, asphalt and other varieties also showed more than 1% increase.

"from the perspective of the industrial chain pattern, this wave of oil price rebound will have a greater stimulating effect on PTA." Shi Zheming, director of Zhejiang Yuanda products investment and research, believes that the chain from upstream crude oil to PTA is very short, and the rise of crude oil price will release to PTA rapidly. While other chemicals, such as plastics and PVC, have a certain degree of correlation with crude oil price trend, but in the current market structure, they will be more affected by terminal consumption and other aspects.

Li ZHOULEI also said that in the recent visit to Shandong local refining enterprises, compared with the continuous decline of crude oil prices in the early stage, the recent rebound in crude oil prices has made refineries correct their expectations, but they still have a wait-and-see attitude towards the trend of medium and long-term oil prices. However, with the recent overhaul of some Sinopec refineries and the recovery of terminal consumption, gasoline and other refined oil prices have continued to strengthen.


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