One third of coal to olefins will be suspended?

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
In his keynote speech in the afternoon, Lu gendi, the synthetic resin Department of Sinopec Chemical Sales East China branch, pointed out that if the oil price falls below the production cost line, the oil price will be low. The low oil price will slow down the investment heat of coal to olefins, delay the construction cycle of some projects under construction, and some proposed projects may be cancelled, so the investment tends to be cautious in the future. The low oil price will not affect the light cracking unit under construction in the United States.

the following is the transcript of the speech:

in order to make clear the impact of low oil prices on the plastic market, we must talk about the impact of high oil prices on the plastic market, so as to better understand the impact of low oil prices on the plastic market in the future.

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began to rise in 2003. Between 2005 and 2006, the international oil price reached between $60 and $80. At that time, it was a historical high area. In this case, in order to hedge and ease the cost pressure brought by international oil price, including the security and risk of national energy supply, countries around the world began to pool funds to develop new energy industry. With the further rise of international oil prices, in this period of time, the formation of oil, natural gas, coal and other energy sources has formed a trend for the diversity of plastic industry. "Spkds" of "spekds" in the Middle East and "spkds" in China increased significantly. It is also because of the substantial growth of ethylene in the Middle East, which has changed the pattern of supply and demand. Since 2005, there has been a rapid growth of international ethylene, mainly in three places, mainly in Asia, including the Middle East, Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia. Ethylene in the rest of the world is mainly declining, mainly due to the closure of old production capacity and no release of new production capacity. The world's ethylene production capacity is basically growing at a rate of 3% to 4%. With the oil price of "spekds" increasing in 2005, the "spekds" oil production increased. Then, the price of semi-finished products in the Middle East is relatively fixed. With the sharp rise of international oil prices, its competitive advantage is growing. Therefore, during this period of time, a large amount of investment in light hydrocarbon cracking has resulted in a very rapid growth rate of ethylene in the Middle East. In 2005, its ethylene output was a little more than 1000, but by 2013, the ethylene production had reached about 2700 level, with an average annual growth rate of more than 15% from 2005 to 2010.

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the growth of domestic coal to olefins, from considering investment in 2005, to the smooth operation of Shenhua unit in 2010, coal to olefin is very certain in Shenhua. From scratch, up to 2014, the production capacity of coal to olefins in China reached 5.26 million tons. Up to now, there are 13 sets of coal to olefin units put into operation, with a total capacity of 6.42 million tons. The following pictures show some projects under construction or to be built in the next few years. It is estimated that the ethylene production under construction or to be built will reach 28 million tons. By 2014, there are 6.42 million tons of coal to olefins in China. According to the plan, there are 42 projects, which are estimated to be 28 million tons. If all the above projects are put into operation, the production capacity of domestic coal to olefins will reach 34.5 million tons by 2018 or later. This is the effect of high oil price on coal to olefin cracking. I think the price of oil falling below $60 is low. In addition to its scarcity, crude oil has the attributes of easy value-added, financial attributes and national energy security. Therefore, if crude oil falls below the cost line, it will be a low oil price if it falls below $60. Under the low oil price of

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, when the coal price of domestic coal to polyolefin project is 480 yuan, according to the current U.S. dollar exchange rate, the international oil price is 85 yuan, and our cost is equivalent After 2008, the international oil price has long been above US $100. In addition, Shenhua has been successfully put into operation and the breakthrough in coal to olefin technology. We knew at that time that the sudden investment of 4 trillion yuan led to a substantial increase in China's coal to olefins after 2010. Just now, when the international oil price is at 85 US dollars, the cost is considerable. That is to say, if the oil price falls below 85 dollars, the cost advantage will not be there. What's the cost of olefin production in US $85?

I calculated, it's about 8400 to 9000. If the price falls below $60, the cost of polyolefins is about 6600 to 7200 at the current exchange rate, that is to say, the current polyolefin crude oil route is 6600 to 7200, and the corresponding price of coal to olefin may be a little high, but if we communicate with coal to olefin enterprises or I look at their financial reports, coal to olefin is calculated according to the comprehensive coal cost, They are 7500 to 8000. The depreciation is calculated by ten years' depreciation. I think this price is relatively reliable. It is very obvious that when the international oil price enters the low oil price, the cost advantage of coal to olefins will be lost. Moreover, compared with the olefins of naphtha route, the comparison is still relatively large.

The cost of

is rising due to the fact that low oil price is no longer advantageous to coal to olefins and environmental protection requirements are improved. If the oil price is low, I estimate that the investment boom of coal to olefins will cool down. It is estimated that most of the proposed projects we just mentioned will be suspended. What is the amount? I think at least one third of these projects are under construction Therefore, the production date will be greatly delayed.

we just saw the cost of coal to olefins. At present, we say that a standard coal to olefin ratio is about 20 billion yuan, or a little lower. Then in March and April, the state issued a new guideline on coal to olefins or coal chemical industry, which put forward a lot of requirements for coal chemical industry, including environmental protection requirements, including the requirements for plant density. So I learned about it With some enterprises or departments engaged in coal chemical research, at present, the construction of coal chemical industry will increase by at least 10%. If the 700000 ton polyolefin unit is to be built in the future, its investment will exceed 21 billion US dollars, which means that the cost will rise further in the future. Why does

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account for one third of the

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? Let's talk about the situation of Sinopec. There are five coal chemical plants. One is Ordos, with 3.6 million tons of formaldehyde, 1.6 million tons of olefins and 3.8 million tons of polyolefins. In addition, Xin'an's, Guizhou's and Hebi's. From my latest understanding of Sinopec coal chemical industry, because of the constraints
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