PTA industry chain "throbbing period" is far from over

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

polyester Market shuffle accelerated superimposed off-season effect fermentation

bankruptcy occurred frequently, polyester industry shuffle accelerated

in early May, Shaoxing Shenying group announced bankruptcy due to debt of nearly 2.8 billion yuan. It is understood that the group has nine core enterprises, such as Shenying clothing, Shenlong clothing, Shenma clothing, leisure clothing, etc. It is worth noting that this is only the tip of the iceberg. In the interview, the reporter of futures daily learned that in addition to textile and garment enterprises, 16 chemical fiber enterprises have closed down in recent two years.

"bankruptcy news often appears, in fact, is a microcosm of polyester industry weakness." A person in the industry said so.

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it is understood that after the financial crisis, thanks to the good production efficiency in the early stage and the stable monetary policy, the polyester industry has entered a new round of production peak since 2009, with an average annual production capacity of 3.5 million tons. With the aggravation of overcapacity, corporate efficiency began to decline in 2012. At the same time, coupled with the tight liquidity, chemical fiber enterprises began to stop production and close down.

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talked about the change of polyester industry, and Wu Wenhai, who has been engaged in PTA trade for many years, has deep feelings.

"since 2009, there are two types of capacity expansion in polyester industry." According to him, one is the expansion of old polyester enterprises, which has formed 14 super large polyester enterprises with the scale of 1 million tons and above; the other is the expansion of new polyester enterprises, with the scale of 200000-250000 tons, with a thin enterprise foundation, high debt and no original capital accumulation.

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Wu Wenhai believes that most of the enterprises put into operation after 2011 are losing money, and they are also the first to be shuffled. In the

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chemical fiber enterprises, due to the cost competition, the enterprises have suffered losses for a long time. Since 2012, some conventional chip spinning enterprises have been forced to reduce production or even close down.

"for chip spinning, this is a choice of the times." Huarui information polyester senior analyst Ni Guomiao said that in the context of overcapacity, the first to be shuffled is the conventional chip spinning enterprises. For direct spinning enterprises, the reduction of production or even bankruptcy is not due to the disadvantage of cost competition, but the fracture of funds.

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reporters found that a lot of closed direct spinning enterprises have a common feature, that is, they have all expanded. In those years, the benefits have declined seriously and the liquidity has been tight, which has led to the collapse of these enterprises due to the break of funds. The

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polyester industry chain has the phenomenon of mutual guarantee and joint guarantee. The bankruptcy of an enterprise may involve related enterprises. Therefore, banks are more cautious in lending to polyester industry, and even take out loans. In this way, it will only make the polyester industry worse. " Ni Guomiao said.

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were shuffled from chip spinning industry in 2012 to direct spinning industry in 2014. In fact, polyester industry has entered an accelerated shuffle period. Up to now, the actual output of nearly 10 million tons of chip spinning capacity is only 3 million tons. Since 2012, 12 direct spinning enterprises have gone bankrupt. Among them, in just two years from 2014 to 2015, 9 direct spinning enterprises were affected.

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are obvious in the off-season, and the market prosperity is "yellow light",

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. In fact, since 2013, polyester industry has entered a long bear Road, and the prosperity of PTA downstream market has been on the "yellow light". In particular, in the past two years, affected by the weak economy and sluggish exports, orders have shrunk, and even in the peak season, they have not been hot in previous years.

"downstream demand, such as Wang Xiaoer's new year, is not as good as the year before." Wu Wenhai said frankly.

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in his view, China's textile and clothing export demand growth peaked in 2010, and the absolute value of export amount peaked in 2014. The depression of

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terminal textile industry is directly transmitted to polyester factories, most of which are troubled by large inventory and low production and sales rate. In this state, price reduction and promotion have become the norm.

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it is understood that, in addition to bottle chips and staple fiber breakeven or a small profit, filament products with the largest proportion are always in a state of loss, and there are many direct spinning filament enterprises with insufficient operating rate and tight capital.

"long-term low profits or even losses, leading to limited financing channels and high financing costs Hongye futures analyst Zhang Yongge said that the upstream and downstream resonance, polyester industry profit space has been compressed, although the price stage by stage by the support of raw materials, but subject to the downturn in the terminal, polyester industry has been declining.

according to market participants, most polyester plants with a scale of 200000 tons are facing survival pressure.

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entered may, and PTA downstream entered the traditional off-season. What worries the market is that this year's off-season seems to be even worse. The weakening of

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and "PTA" downstream is firstly reflected in the weaving link. "Jin San Yin Si" market ended one month ahead of schedule, leading to a significant weakening of rigid demand for upstream polyester. " According to Wang Guangqian, an analyst of Soochow futures, in March, Hangzhou and Wujiang successively implemented compression control on the production capacity of printing and dyeing enterprises, which led to a backlog of cloth products in the weaving process, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms peaked in mid March.

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with the decline of the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, the light effect of the market is transmitted to the upstream polyester / polyester link.

Although the current operating rate of

polyester enterprises is still around 82%, Wang Guangqian believes that this only shows that cash flow of some polyester enterprises is acceptable. Although the inventory is under pressure, it has not reached the critical point of tolerance. Moreover, in the situation that the terminal demand has not completely weakened, polyester enterprises can only work hard for market share, and the decline of operating rate of polyester enterprises in the later stage is a big probability event. The atmosphere of

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is not good, and the bottom of PTA price is hovering. Since May, the commodity market has cooled down, PTA futures have been under pressure, and the focus has returned to fundamentals. In the early stage of

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, crude oil prices rose due to the expectation of falling supply. However, in the medium and long term, the oil price will touch the resistance level and there is a possibility of adjustment. "Before the rise in oil prices, PTA did not follow up, and in the case of negative macro factors, PTA is likely to resonate with crude oil, thus strengthening its weak down market." A person in the industry said. Besides,

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are not supported

Tag: PTA industry chain