Petrochemical industry reshuffle finished? 2017 is expected to enter a new cycle

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

after the 2016 Spring Festival holiday, commodity prices generally rose, and petrochemical industry is no exception. According to the monitoring of the business agency, since February, the price of petrochemical products has risen, and the chemical index has risen from 600 points to 643 points on March 23, an overall increase of 43 points. In addition, according to Shandong Chlor Alkali Industry Association, since the second half of 2015, the chlor alkali industry has ended its five-year deficit and began to make profits. Is the petrochemical market really getting hot? Liu Xintian, core expert of China Commodity Development Research Center and author of market plus, believes that the petrochemical market has not been "hot" at present. He pointed out that the driving force of upstream crude oil is the main factor in this wave of rise. According to monitoring, WTI crude oil rose from 26.21 US dollars / barrel on February 11 to 41.45 dollars / barrel on March 23, with an overall increase rate of 58.15%. In addition, Liu Xintian also pointed out that even if some industries have begun to make profits, it can not be judged that the petrochemical industry has recovered. He pointed out that at present, the demand in petrochemical industry has not improved significantly. Taking the downstream plastic products industry as an example, according to the survey, due to the limited demand of the terminal market, the current sales of plastic products are low, and the product inventory is high, resulting in the current operating rate of plastic factories only maintained at about 50%. In addition, Liu Xintian believes that the crude oil price has been cut off in the past two years, or even hovered at a price lower than US $50, resulting in a substantial reduction in the cost of raw materials in the whole petrochemical industry, and then some petrochemical industries or enterprises have made profits. This profit is based on the reduction of costs rather than the recovery of demand, so it can not really support the "hot" of the chemical industry.

so when can the petrochemical industry really "hot"? Liu Xintian believes that at present, the petrochemical industry has begun to enter the next big cycle, but it will still be a long time before the market can really recover. He pointed out that petrochemical enterprises had experienced a reshuffle in 2014 and 2015, and by the beginning of 2016, the whole petrochemical industry had begun to show signs of a new cycle: on the one hand, the operating rate was at a historical low. Taking some chemical products as an example, according to monitoring, as of the end of January 2016, the average operating rate of styrene, cyclohexanone, adipic acid, phenol and aniline industry only reached 53%, 60%, 60%, 65% and 45%; on the other hand, the price of petrochemical products has gradually bid farewell to the historical low. According to the monitoring, the average rise and fall of chemical industry sector in the price rise and fall list of bulk commodities in 2015 was - 10.76%, nearly 4% higher than that in 2014 (- 14.47%); there were 21 kinds of varieties that increased year on year, 6 kinds more than those in 2014. Generally speaking,

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in general, the petrochemical industry has gradually shown signs of a new cycle, and there will certainly be a positive market in the later period. However, as the reshuffle of the whole petrochemical industry has not yet been completely completed, and the supply and demand situation has not been significantly improved, so the time of market emergence may be delayed, as early as the second half of this year, and at the latest it will be delayed to 2017. At that time, the petrochemical industry will be really "hot".