Petrochemical products usher in xiaoyangchun

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
According to price monitoring,

according to price monitoring, there were 28 kinds of commodities that rose on a month on month basis in the 58 price rising and falling list last week, which were mainly concentrated in rubber and plastic plate and chemical industry sector. The top three commodities with an increase of more than 5% were ethylene glycol, PET / > pet and polyester POY, respectively, up 15.61%, 6.73% and 5.94% respectively. 23 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, focusing on steel plate and nonferrous metal plate. The top three falling commodities were polymerized MDI falling 2.34%, liquefied gas falling 1.85% and steam coal (Bohai Rim) falling 1.78%.

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data show that the commodity market rose more than fell last week. Among the 58 commodities monitored, 48.28% rose and 39.66% fell, further expanding the increase to 0.84%. The commodity market has been up for three weeks. Among them, the biggest change in the bulk commodity market last week was the collective upward trend of petrochemical commodities, with pure benzene rising by 0.47% and acetic acid decreasing by 0.87%; after the heat, ethylene glycol remained the champion with an increase of 15.61%, while inorganic urea rose by 3.43%, which also opened a new round of rising cycle. In the rubber and plastic sector, the situation of strong plastic and weak rubber has also greatly improved. With the continuous rise of crude oil and main raw material butadiene, the synthetic rubber market has also stopped falling and rebounded. Natural rubber, which has been in a downturn for more than a month, has risen by 0.93%, showing a slight rebound trend. The plastic market has also completely walked out of the downturn in the first quarter, especially PET, which has been at a low point of 6792 yuan / ton since 2010 。

The reason why

petrochemical products have welcomed the xiaoyangchun market is that the business agency thinks that there are several reasons for this: 1. The time of recent emergencies is relatively concentrated, including the explosion of PX device and the explosion of BASF ethylene glycol plant in Yangzi; 2. Many petrochemical products are in the centralized maintenance season, and the production capacity is relatively large; 3. The continuous rise of Crude Oil supports the development of petrochemical products 4. Favorable policy guidance, such as the combination of electricity prices, has raised the production costs of enterprises on the other hand; 5. Traders have taken advantage of the opportunity to speculate. When all kinds of benefits have not yet completely subsided, it is expected that the rise of petrochemical commodities will continue until the middle of May, and there are still variables in the later stage of the market.

steel and nonferrous metal plates were still the hardest hit areas in the commodity market last week. Iron and steel commodities, although iron ore rose 3.54%, up for two weeks, but other downstream varieties continue to fall at the same time, iron ore is difficult to stand alone. He Hangsheng, an iron and steel analyst at the business club, believes that if the fundamentals of the steel market remain unchanged, it will be more difficult for iron ore to continue to rise in May, and the rebound of the whole steel plate in the first half of the year is almost hopeless. The nonferrous metal plate is still polarized, but the gap between the rise and fall is narrowed. The biggest increase in nickel is only 0.69%, and the biggest decline in silver is - 1.43%. However, there are many factors supporting the non-ferrous plate in the near future, and there is still a bright spot in May. Liu Xintian, editor in chief of

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, believes that it is the "strength" of crude oil that has brought about a false rise in petrochemical commodities in the short term, and whether the "rising" of crude oil can continue to remain uncertain. After the short-term favorable release of sudden events (explosions) and centralized maintenance, and once the crude oil price falls, the whole commodity market will still fall. At present, the illusion of centralized rise of petrochemical commodities is basically triggered by accidental factors, which is not the true reflection of the bulk commodity market. The sustainability of the rise of the bulk commodity market needs to be tested, and the hidden dangers behind the excessive short-term rise can not be ignored. Liu Xintian pointed out that the bulk commodity market is still in the early stage of the inflection point in April, and there is not much room for growth in the first half of the year. On the contrary, the chemical industry is still likely to decline in May.

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in addition, since the crude oil broke through the ceiling of $55 / barrel last week, the uncertainty of its trend has also increased, and the fluctuation space of crude oil may change. It is estimated that $55-60 / barrel may become a new fluctuation space. Once crude oil breaks through $60, it is likely to cause a new round of rise in the commodity market.


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