Propylene market facing changes

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
At present, the propylene industry is in a new era of

, both raw materials and processes can be said to be blooming. With the development of coal to olefins and PDH (propane dehydrogenation to propylene) process, propylene is no longer a "rare commodity" and its value has plummeted. In particular, if the planning of millions of tons of PDH project is put into production, propylene will change from aristocracy to civilian. Propylene capacity expansion brought about by increased supply, price decline and other pressures, so that the propylene industry is always nervous, fear of falling pressure. In the face of the continuous downturn of the chemical market and the continuous release of production capacity, the propylene market will enter a critical period of reshuffle.

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first of all, production capacity release ushered in blowout. In 2014, China's PDH projects grew rapidly from one set at the beginning to four sets, with a total capacity of 2.55 million tons / year and an actual output of about 2.43 million tons. However, in 2015, it will maintain the momentum of rapid development, and will add 8 sets of PDH projects with a capacity of 5.3452 million tons / year. In addition, South Korea also has two sets of new PDH units with a total capacity of 1 million tons / year, which will be put into operation at the end of the year or early next year, and a large amount of propylene is expected to enter the Chinese market. In addition, China's propylene market may be saturated with methanol to olefin projects.

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are the second, and the circulation pattern is about to change. With the release of production capacity, propylene circulation pattern will change. Take Shandong as an example. This is the most important propylene production and marketing market in China, and the propylene production capacity accounts for about 40% of the whole country. Its propylene price trend is usually used as the wind vane of the overall domestic propylene market. Although Shandong market has such a large share in propylene supply, there is still a supply gap for a long time. On the one hand, due to the limitation of crude oil quota, the unit operating rate is insufficient; on the other hand, the downstream products of propylene are abundant and the demand is large in the region. In recent two years, the downstream capacity expansion accelerated, resulting in continuous shortage of propylene supply. Therefore, the northeast, North China, northwest, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces as well as imported goods continue to flow into the Shandong market to fill the vacancy, which also supports the Shandong propylene price to become the national highland. However, as the PDH projects of Jingbo and Yantai Wanhua enterprises and methanol to olefin projects of Shouguang Luqing, Shandong Shenda, Yangmei Hengtong and other enterprises are gradually completed and put into operation, the propylene supply gap in Shandong market is gradually reduced or even made up, and the propylene market supply pattern in Shandong and even the whole country will change. Once again, price competition may become the mainstream. With the continuous release of production capacity, the domestic propylene self-sufficiency rate will be effectively improved. In addition to the influx of foreign products, price war is imminent. Propylene in the oil route is more competitive when crude oil prices are low. If the price of crude oil is more than $70 / barrel, coal to olefin will be economical. For the PDH route, at present, the CIF Cost of domestic imported propane is about 3500 yuan / ton, and the domestic propylene price is more than 7000 yuan / ton. After excluding the production cost, the profit margin is still very considerable, which is also the driving force for domestic large chemical enterprises to actively rush for PDH projects. However, most of domestic propane is not suitable for use as raw material of PDH project, and imported high-purity propane is still the main purchasing object in the later stage. In the late stage, the competition for raw material market of PDH is just beginning.

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to sum up, the next few years will be a relatively difficult and challenging stage for the domestic propylene market. Therefore, the major enterprises should fully consider the raw materials, process, market, downstream and other factors in the distribution of propylene, and should not fall into the passive situation of stopping production on a single tree bridge. However, in the face of the vigorous development of China's chemical industry, the author believes that after the market waves, the propylene market will find a balance point, and the industry will become better and stronger.


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