Refining and chemical industry on the outlet: the paradox of overcapacity and high profit

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
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"along the most congested Jinan Qingdao Expressway in Shandong Province, driving from Jinan to Linzi District of Zibo City, there will be two or three dangerous goods transport vehicles running every few hundred meters.

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are the provincial roads S231 leading to Lijin County and Kenli County in Dongying City from the lower Expressway in Linzi District, Zibo City. On both sides of the road, you can see all kinds of small shops opened by local people to serve oil tankers, as well as long lines of dangerous goods transport vehicles on the road. There are a large number of refineries of different sizes in the area that this road passes through. The reporter will visit a small and medium-sized oil refinery, which is less than 30 kilometers away from Dongying.

"our annual refining capacity is 2.2 million tons, mainly producing No.0 diesel oil and naphtha of national V standard, and some residual oil after refining," Xiao Hu of the refinery told reporters. "Now it's relatively profitable. Our basic operating rate has reached 100%, and it can be processed day and night." At the gate of the factory, he took reporters into the 11 storey office building built by the refinery last year.

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are local refineries with a small area. The atmospheric and vacuum distillation equipment in the plant area is close to the oil tank farm. The reporter visited at 2:00 p.m. on Friday. There were four tanker trucks with a load of 35 tons waiting for loading and unloading at the gate of the factory.

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are just a microcosm of Shandong Dilian. Since the second half of last year,

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have been falling all the way. At the lowest point, WTI crude oil futures price was only 34.53 USD / barrel. This gives Shandong local refining enterprises, which have just obtained the "double rights" of imported crude oil, an excellent opportunity. In September last year, 16 local refining enterprises set up Shandong crude oil purchasing center in Jinan, and six of them have obtained the "double rights" of importing crude oil. According to the public information, only these six enterprises hold the import qualification of 20 million tons. In addition to other refining enterprises applying for quota, the import capacity of this alliance may exceed 60 million tons per year.

according to the data released by Qingdao Customs in Shandong Province in the first quarter, the crude oil import data is unprecedented. In the first three months of this year, a total of 27.34 million tons of crude oil were imported, an increase of 78.2% over the same period of last year. The average price was 1583 yuan per ton, a decrease of 36.4%. Among the enterprises importing crude oil, the state-owned enterprises imported 17.79 million tons of crude oil, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, and the private enterprises imported 9.35 million tons of crude oil. The local refining enterprises that just obtained the "double rights" imported 6.79 million tons of crude oil, contributing more than 50% to the growth of crude oil import volume at Shandong port.

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Xiaohu admitted to reporters that at present, the company has not obtained double rights. "We are still applying, but we haven't got the relevant reply yet," he said. "If we can finally obtain the direct import right, it will certainly help the company a lot. The cost of getting crude oil is lower and it is easier. Even if we don't refine it, the price rise will also benefit." However, for these enterprises, there are still many uncertain factors besides the favorable factors. On May 10, Longkou City, Shandong Province, stopped the EIA work of a large-scale petrochemical industrial park project jointly invested by China and Singapore.

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are not only us, but the whole Zibo is not allowed to expand oil refineries now, "Xiao Hu told reporters. Some time ago, some small-scale local oil refining and chemical plants have been ordered to shut down. The logic of

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of refining and chemical industry. Although the oil refining industry has appeared obvious overcapacity, from a practical point of view, its situation is much better than that of steel industry and coal industry.

Xiao Hu told reporters that the company's refinery sales situation is quite good recently, and has considered adding a hydrogenation equipment production line in addition to diesel oil and naphtha to produce naphtha into gasoline. "Although we can't expand any more, we can upgrade the production line in the places approved before. We are ready to start a set of hydrogenation equipment, which is expected to be completed and put into operation next year."

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in addition to the sharp increase of profits in the refining sector of PetroChina and Sinopec, Shanghai Petrochemical realized a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2016, with a year-on-year increase of 20 times, setting a new profit record in the first quarter since the company was listed; Hengyi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. expects the first quarter profit growth to be more than twice; Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493. SZ) expects the first quarter performance to increase more than 7 times year-on-year. The petrochemical companies that have released the first quarter report all showed different profit growth rates. Analysts of

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Zhuo Chuang information told reporters that the price of domestic petroleum raw materials is highly linked to that of international petroleum raw materials, which can almost be said to be fully in line. However, due to the existence of "floor price", there will be a "dividend" in the actual production process of refining and chemical enterprises. "Based on the possibility of low international oil prices and the existence of domestic" floor prices ", we believe that this dividend of refining and chemical industry will continue to exist." He said. However, this good news is not enough to change the overall judgment of overcapacity at this stage. "As far as I know, PetroChina Sinopec's refining capacity in the north is shrinking." An expert in the oil industry told reporters, "the senior management of the two companies are not very optimistic about the future of the Chinese market." The enthusiasm of

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local refining enterprises to apply for import of crude oil is very high, but it takes a lot of effort to apply. In the notice of the national development and Reform Commission on issues related to the use and management of imported crude oil issued by the national development and Reform Commission last year, it is clearly stipulated that the amount of oil used by the local refining enterprises shall be determined according to a certain proportion of the capacity of eliminating self owned or merged backward units and building gas storage facilities, but the upper limit shall not exceed the total design and processing capacity of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units that meet the requirements of the enterprise, In addition, the procedure for confirming the elimination of backward production capacity that can be traced and inspected is also specified.

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according to a data obtained by the reporter from Zhuo Chuang information, as of the end of April, the total production capacity of 17 local refining enterprises applying for "double rights" in Shandong reached 120 million tons / year, but the eliminated capacity was determined to be about 48 million tons / year, the reserved production capacity was 73 million tons / year, and the applied (including approved) imported crude oil consumption reached 64.41 million tons.

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reporters visited several refining enterprises with this data, and one of them told the reporter that the part of the data about the elimination of production capacity

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