Supply and demand in some chemical industry segments expected to improve in 2016

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

At the 2016 petrochemical industry development conference held on April 12, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation issued the 2016 petrochemical industry capacity early warning report.

Sun Weishan, Deputy Secretary General of the Federation of petrochemical industries, said that in 2016, the growth rate of supply and demand of petrochemical products will further slow down, and the game between overcapacity and demand will continue.

the capacity utilization rate of chemical fertilizer, soda ash and caustic soda industries is expected to be further improved.

an exit mechanism for backward production capacity in the petrochemical industry should be established, export policies should be stabilized, and capacity early warning and monitoring should be strengthened.

Export market highlights report shows that in 2016, the positive and negative factors of the petrochemical market are intertwined, and the new balance of supply and demand is being rebuilt.

In terms of domestic demand, in the situation of overall slowdown in macroeconomic growth, the demand growth of petrochemical products application industry slowed down, and the overall market demand was weak.

The automobile and chemical fiber industry is expected to be better than 2015, and the growth rate of demand for engineering plastics, chemical fiber raw materials, polyurethane materials and other products will rise slightly.

Export is expected to become a bright spot in the petrochemical market in 2016.

According to the report, the export volume of refined oil, soda ash, diammonium phosphate, PTA and other industries increased by 30.

3%, 22.

7%, 64.

3% and 34.

6% year-on-year in 2015 due to the fierce competition in the domestic market and the cancellation of the "window period" of fertilizer export.

In the past two years, the export volume of caustic soda, PVC, MDI, oxalic acid, silicone methyl monomer and other products has maintained a rapid growth.

It is expected that in 2016, China will continue to implement loose export policies, and the export volume of petrochemical products will continue to grow.

In terms of product price, the international oil price will be weak in 2016, and the average annual price may be maintained below $50 / barrel.

According to the monitoring data of the Federation of petroleum and chemical industry, the total price level of the petroleum and chemical industry decreased for the fourth consecutive year in 2015, with the largest drop of 11%.

Judging from all aspects, the latest round of downward price basically bottomed out.

With the downward exploration and stabilization of crude oil and other bulk commodity prices, the overall price level of the petroleum and chemical industry will rise again in 2016, but the increase is not large, about 1.5%. According to the report on supply and demand improvement in some fields, the contradiction between supply and demand of bulk petrochemical products will not change fundamentally in 2016.

From the perspective of key products, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash, ammonium phosphate, caustic soda, polypropylene and other industries is expected to be further improved.

the capacity utilization rate of urea, PTA and polyurethane raw materials is expected to be flat with that in 2015.

the capacity utilization rate of oil refining, modern coal chemical industry, synthetic rubber and some fluorine chemical industries is expected to continue to decline, with overcapacity becoming more prominent.

In 2016, the capacity scale of soda ash and soda ash products is expected to continue to decrease or be equivalent to that in 2015, and the demand will maintain a stable growth.

The annual average utilization rate of soda ash production capacity will exceed 90%, and the production capacity will tend to be reasonable.

The average annual capacity utilization rate of caustic soda is 85%, 7% higher than that in 2015.

Also affected by the optimization of supply and demand, the average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene and polyvinyl chloride is expected to be 83% and 72% in 2016, respectively, which is 4% and 3% higher than that in 2015.

PTA capacity utilization is expected to be about 66%, comparable to 2015.

It is worth noting that the capacity of PTA raw material PX increases slowly.

In 2016, the supply and demand of PX are more tense, and the import volume of PX will further increase.

Oil refining, modern coal chemical industry, synthetic rubber and some fluorine chemical industry are not optimistic.

In 2016, the domestic refining capacity remained at about 800 million tons.

It is estimated that the domestic market and export demand for refining capacity is 680 million tons, and the capacity exceeds the demand by 120 million tons.

Affected by the impact of low oil prices and increasingly stringent environmental protection laws and regulations, the contradiction between supply and demand in coal chemical industry is prominent.

If there is no significant positive announcement, the capacity utilization rate of coal chemical industry will further decline in 2016.

The synthetic rubber is mainly affected by the low price of natural rubber and the anti-dumping policy of the United States.

If there is no obvious positive effect on the export, the annual average capacity utilization rate of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber will stay at the low level of 47% and 59% respectively.