The chemical industry went down in a narrow range in July, and the market continued to be depressed in August

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
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chemical index was 700 points on July 31, the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, which was 31.10% lower than the highest point of 1016 on March 13, 2012. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present.

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according to the price monitoring of business agency, there were 18 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose on a month on month basis in July 2015, of which 3 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.6% of the total commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities were ammonium chloride (10.84%), ammonium sulfate (6.75%) and vitamin B3 (6.49%). There were 93 kinds of commodities with a month on month decline in

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, 41 of which fell by more than 5%, accounting for 36% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products of decline were liquid chlorine (- 37.26%), butadiene (- 29.22%) and diethylene glycol (- 17.40%).

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increased or decreased by - 4.03% in July 2015. Zhou Qian, a senior analyst in the chemical industry of

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business community, pointed out that the overall chemical market showed a narrow downward trend in July, with the chemical index of 700 points at the end of the month, a record low in the cycle. There are two main factors for the downward trend:

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. First, the international crude oil price has a volatile decline, and the conductivity has affected organic products, such as pure benzene, toluene, ethylene, butadiene and other products, especially butadiene products ranked in the top three of this month's decline list.

2. In the traditional off-season, the demand for downstream end products is weak, and the demand for high-temperature production and power is limited, which is mainly reflected in the fluorine chemical industry and bromine chemical industry.

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in addition, the top product in this month's growth list is ammonium sulfate. Domestic supply is relatively tight this month. The main reason is that coking plants are directly shut down due to environmental restrictions. At present, the domestic operating rate is less than 40%, and the price is supported by factors such as domestic demand and export inquiry. Liquid chlorine was the first product in the decline list this month, and the poor downstream demand was the main reason for the sharp decline in the market. Chlorine consuming products such as dichloromethane and chloroform continued to decline this month, resulting in poor demand for liquid chlorine. At the same time, the performance of the two alkali markets was relatively stable, and the periodic increase of chlor alkali operating rate directly led to the sufficient supply of liquid chlorine Market and oversupply of market supply.

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to sum up, Zhou Qian believes that the current domestic chemical market is entering a downward channel. Although the contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated to some extent, the substantial demand of downstream terminals has not yet been fully opened. Considering that "Jinjiu" is coming soon, it is expected that the chemical industry sector will continue to be depressed in August, and the fertilizer sector may rebound slightly under the support of fertilizer preparation in autumn. In July 2015, the supply and demand index (BCI) of China's bulk commodities released by the commodity data provider business agency was - 0.73, with an average increase of - 4.31%, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing economy in that month compared with that of the previous month, and the risks of economic downturn increased.


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