The commodity market rose more than fell

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

In the first week of May, the commodity market ended the "hot mode" and quickly changed its face.

According to the latest statistics, in the 18th week of 2016 (5.2-5.6), 37.

93% of the commodities rose, 58.

62% fell, and another 3.

45% remained flat.

compared with last week, the proportion of declining commodities increased by 20% (55.

17% up, 37.

93% down last week).

Industry insiders said that the rapid change in the commodity market last week was mainly due to the rational correction of commodities that had risen sharply in the early stage, and dropped out of the rising list one after another, including steel, nonferrous metals, rubber, plastics and other plates.

Commodity market significant correction, commodity market decline began to expand last week.

Data show that the average rise and fall of the market is - 0.

28%, which is the first time in more than a month that the weekly average rise and fall is negative.

Last week, the market fell more than 3% of the goods, compared with the previous week only two.

It is reported that the commodities that rose last week were mainly concentrated in the agricultural and sideline sector (6 kinds in total) and energy sector (4 kinds in total), with the increase of more than 5% mainly concentrated in the energy sector.

the top three commodities that rose were coke (13.

65%), polymerized MDI (4.

40%) and caustic soda (3.06%). Coke, the biggest gainer, has been up for two weeks in a row.

Other commodities in the energy sector, such as coking coal, asphalt and methanol, have continued to rise, but crude oil has begun to fall back.

Last week, WTI crude oil "ranked fourth" in the decline list with - 3.71%. Looking at other commodities in the rising list, the agricultural and sideline categories are dominant, and the agricultural and sideline categories account for 6 of the 22 rising commodities.

At the same time, last week's decline was mainly concentrated in rubber and plastics (7 kinds), nonferrous metals (6 kinds) and steel (6 kinds), with the top three falling commodities being iron ore (Australia) (- 4.

22%), PTA (East China) (- 4.

16%) and natural rubber (standard 1) (- 3.96%). Iron and steel plate from the previous week began to end the situation of skyrocketing, fell out of the list, last week iron ore still bottom, other commodities except seamless tube ( 1.

06%) have different degrees of decline.

The nonferrous metals plate also changed from the rise of the previous week to almost all the decline, and even the daily decline of nickel was as high as 3.78%. Rubber and plastic products ended the situation of "strong rubber and weak plastic".

Tianjiao, which had the largest monthly increase of nearly 20% since the business agency had monitoring data, was no longer prosperous last week, with a drop of 3.96%. The decline of other commodities such as styrene butadiene rubber, PVC, PP, PA6, etc.

all exceeded the weekly average decline of 0.28%. Analysts pointed out that the decline of crude oil last week also directly affected the spot market.

In addition, the futures market cooled down, the black line was completely destroyed, chemical, nonferrous and agricultural products (13.

63 3.

73%, buying) fell sharply collectively, rebar futures fell by 10% last week, and coke also suffered a drop limit.

It is worth noting that the commodity market is gradually entering the off-season.

Generally speaking, after gold, silver and silver, may is the end of the peak season for all industries.

With the arrival of the off-season, the demand also began to gradually decrease.

Liu Xintian, chief analyst of the business agency, said that the performance of crude oil, copper and iron ore, the wind vane of commodities, basically changed the previous rising tone of the whole commodity.

The market's weakness in the second half of the week is completely out of April's strength.

There were many false rise factors in April, and he predicted that the decline period of commodities would start in early May.

Crude oil still has a chance to go up before reaching the ceiling position of $50.

The market may continue to pull back this week.

Some varieties with lower early valuation, such as PTA and asphalt, may still rise, but the increase is limited.

The proportion of market rise and decline will remain at the beginning of the "Fifth Five Year Plan", and the average rise and fall is expected to continue to shrink.

Prior to that, the BCI of commodity supply and demand index in April was 0.

36, with an average increase of 3.08%. Liu Xintian pointed out that, judging from the market performance in the past three years, sanlianyang has been the best performance of BCI (BCI from February to April 2015 also had triple positive).

From a rational point of view, the current domestic economy is heating up temporarily, and speculation has magnified the market effect.

The good market performance in the last two months has a lot to do with the "little spring" in the real estate market and the release of liquidity.

Although there are positive signals of import and export and other supply and demand, they are mostly affected by the factors of peak season, which is not a real fundamental recovery.

Considering that the upward market stimulates the supply side to increase the load, it has affected the process of supply side reform, and most commodity prices have deviated from their due value due to the rapid and rapid rise.

"It is inevitable that the commodity market will callback in May.

BCI will close again and start the market falling mode.

BCI's four consecutive positive may be lower.

" Mr Liu said.