The general trend of China's continued investment in coal chemical industry will not change

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
In recent years, the development of coal to oil and coal to gas based modern coal chemical projects is the main direction of industrial transformation in some coal rich areas. However, due to its high energy consumption, high water consumption, pollution emissions and other issues, domestic disputes on coal chemical industry continue, coupled with the sharp drop in international oil prices, coal chemical industry has been impacted. China's modern coal chemical industry seems to have reached a crossroads. There are different opinions on how to go in the future.

as the pace of the 13th five year plan of coal chemical industry is getting closer and closer, the coal chemical project once in the clamor of public discussion will get relevant policy guidance. In this regard, some industry analysts believe that although some coal chemical projects will be postponed or cancelled, the general trend of China's continued investment in coal chemical industry will not change from the overall background. According to the observation of

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, in the near future, 35-40% of the project investment in China will be concentrated on coal chemical projects such as coal to olefins. However, 40% of these projects will be cancelled or delayed more or less, but the long-term investment in coal chemical industry will not be reduced. An analyst of

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believes that there are sufficient reasons for China to develop coal chemical industry. First of all, China's coal reserves are abundant, and China also hopes to achieve self-sufficiency in chemical products, which requires making full use of domestic coal resources to solve the supply problem. Secondly, from the perspective of energy use structure adjustment, China's main energy consumption Channel - transportation industry mainly uses oil, so China will replace oil with coal in petrochemical industry in the future, and at the same time, the oil resources liberated from petrochemical industry will be put into transportation industry. In addition, the downstream products of coal chemical industry are still in the stage of demand growth for a long time, relying on external imports. Although

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are expected to be optimistic, problems such as tens of billions of investment in the early stage of a coal chemical project, frequent failures after operation, and huge environmental consumption hinder the industrial development and are questioned by many industries. The

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environmental protection pressure is gradually expanding,

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China's coal resources and water resources are in reverse distribution, extremely unbalanced. The distribution of water resources is bounded by the Kunlun Qinling Dabie mountain line. The water resources in the south are rich, accounting for 78.6%; the water resources in the north are short, accounting for only 21.4%, while the coal resources account for 90.1% of the whole country. Especially in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River, the coal resources of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia account for 67% of the national total, but the water resources only account for 3.85% of the national water resources. And about 40% of the region belongs to semi-arid area, and the per capita water resources is less than half of that of the Yellow River Basin.

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are almost located in the Yellow River Basin in the western coal resource areas, which lack not only water resources, but also pollution water bodies. Coal chemical production is characterized by high temperature and high pressure, which will inevitably produce a large number of salt containing wastewater. No matter what wastewater treatment technology, salt can not be degraded. The Yellow River is responsible for many kinds of water supply needs such as life, production, agriculture and ecology. At present, the accumulation of salt content is close to the ecological red line. If it is not strictly controlled, the ecological management of the Yellow River Basin will become very difficult. The coal chemical industry of

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is struggling in the dispute. One of the focuses of the dispute is environmental pollution. The environmental protection requirements for coal chemical industry are far higher than the average level of the industry and the stage of economic development. Some implementation rules have been issued in various places. According to preliminary understanding, the chemical industry, including coal chemical industry, is more stringent. The problem of three wastes in coal chemical industry is a difficult problem, especially water. The development demand of

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new coal chemical industry is extremely uncoordinated with the distribution of water resources in the areas where they are located. At present, the environmental protection investment of coal chemical industry accounts for about 50% of the cost, which is far higher than that of petrochemical industry. Water saving technology and sewage treatment technology become the key to industry development and benefit.

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point out that the components of coal chemical wastewater are complex and contain toxic and harmful substances such as solid suspended particles, ammonia nitrogen and sulfide. If not handled properly, it is easy to cause water pollution and develop into water quality water shortage. Therefore, wastewater treatment is a problem that all coal chemical projects need to consider, and also determines the benefits of the whole project to a great extent.

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at present, coal chemical projects produce a large number of gasification waste residue and boiler ash. Most enterprises landfill these wastes without comprehensive utilization, and the landfill cost per ton of waste residue is 20-30 yuan. However, the cost of harmless treatment of zero discharge system per ton of organic wastewater is as high as 2000 yuan / ton. Previously, the person in charge of a coal chemical enterprise in Gansu said that the company planned to invest in the construction of an annual output of 1.8 million tons of methanol and 700000 tons of coal to olefins project in Pingliang, Gansu Province, with a total investment of 25.1 billion yuan, and environmental protection investment accounted for 3 billion yuan.

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lower oil price, coal chemical industry faces loss

once pointed out that in recent years, the reason why the new coal chemical industry has been able to rise suddenly and develop so fast, in addition to vigorously promoting the energy diversification strategy to ensure energy security, and promoting the clean development of energy to solve the air pollution caused by haze, there is also an important driving force is the economy of coal chemical products. As long as the crude oil is maintained above $80 per barrel, products such as coal to liquids and coal to olefins will have strong cost advantages. This statement also illustrates the importance of high oil price to support the development of coal chemical industry. Several research institutions of

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have measured the relationship between international oil price and the profitability of coal chemical projects, and the relatively consistent conclusion is that the breakeven points of coal to liquid, coal to gas and coal to olefin products are mostly in the oil price of 65-85 US dollars / barrel. When the crude oil price is 100 US dollars / barrel, the coal chemical industry generally has better economic benefits; however, at the current oil price of 50-60 dollars / barrel, almost all coal chemical products are no longer profitable. The cost of

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coal chemical products is generally divided into two parts. The fixed cost of plant and equipment and the variable cost of raw material price account for 50% respectively, of which the coal cost accounts for about 30%. In the cost composition of petroleum based chemical products, crude oil accounts for nearly 80% of the cost. Although the price drop from crude oil to downstream petrochemical products has a certain lag effect, many coal chemical enterprises have been feeling the continuous cold. The prices of downstream products, such as benzene and propylene, also fell sharply. stayUnder the background of the sharp drop in crude oil prices, many varieties of coal chemical industry may need to reconsider the economy. " One analyst said.

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at present, most of the new coal chemical projects that have been put into operation in China are in the demonstration stage. The initial investment is huge, often over 10 billion yuan. Most enterprises have huge loans in the bank. If the production is reduced or stopped due to the drop of oil price, the enterprises will have to bear more risk of repayment of loans.

an insider of coal chemical industry pointed out that the fall of oil price directly swallowed up the profits of coal chemical enterprises, especially those coal chemical enterprises whose main business is coal to liquid, coal to gas and coal to olefins. If the oil price is so low, it will undoubtedly be a loss if we keep on doing so. However, if we stop production, the company will have to bear higher depreciation costs and financial costs, which will also affect profits. At present, if you want to stop, it is indeed a dilemma. Moreover, with the increase of new coal chemical projects and the increase of investment amount, the phenomenon of project investment exceeding budget estimate is becoming more and more serious. Statistics show that: in nearly 10 years of construction of coal chemical projects, about half of the project investment exceeded the budget estimate. Among them, the proportion of modern coal chemical project exceeding the budget estimate is as high as 70%, and the investment of some projects even exceeds the budget estimate by more than 40%.

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pointed out that if the coal chemical projects with an investment of more than 1 billion yuan in recent years are strictly audited one by one and approved and announced according to the unified caliber, at least 85% of the actual investment of the projects will exceed the budget estimate. Although the investment in the construction period of some projects does not exceed the budget estimate, it is difficult to operate normally after completion due to various reasons. As a result, the completion and acceptance period of the project has been delayed again and again, and even more funds are needed for technical transformation, filling and leveling, or eliminating omissions and deficiencies. The final investment amount will exceed the budget estimate by a large part. In other words, it is an open secret that the investment of large-scale modern coal chemical project exceeds the budget estimate.

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will not only reduce the profitability of the project, but also cause long-term losses to the owners, even delay the regional economic development, increase bank bad debts, and affect the healthy development of the whole coal chemical industry.

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upgrade technology is the road in the future.

for what is the development direction of coal chemical industry, pointed out that first of all, regardless of the oil price, the development of coal chemical industry is the only way for China's energy strategic transformation, and we should firmly go on. This is decided by China's resource endowment and the background of energy revolution. We should still be optimistic about the future development of coal chemical industry.

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believe that although oil prices continue to fall, coal to liquid is one of the important directions of clean utilization of coal, which is in line with China's national conditions, and is an urgent need and realistic choice to ensure the security of China's oil and gas supply and promote the adjustment of energy structure. China is a country with a large population. It is difficult to support the rapid development of national economy only by domestic oil and gas resources. As the main force in the energy structure, clean and efficient utilization of coal is an important way to realize the development of high-carbon energy and low-carbon, solve the shortage of oil and gas resources and energy diversification transformation. For coal chemical industry, it is necessary to find a healthy and stable development path. The most important one is the improvement of technology. Recently,

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were held in Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Speakers at the meeting believed that the development of coal chemical technology during the 13th Five Year Plan period is a national strategic demand and has good economic benefits. The future development of coal chemical industry needs continuous technology upgrading to solve the bottleneck problem of development from the source.

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said that low oil prices have had a great impact on the development of China's chemical industry, among which the development of coal chemical projects is in an awkward situation. Under the background of overcapacity, China's chemical industry is in urgent need of transformation.

China's chemical industry needs to continue to shut down and eliminate excess capacity, while enterprises need more innovation. With the increasingly severe market environment and increasing challenges, chemical enterprises can no longer rely on traditional means such as cost cutting and balance sheet cleaning to improve performance. To survive in the current environment, enterprises need to apply advanced analysis methods to identify growth opportunities, save costs, and optimize asset portfolios. In order to move forward in the increasingly turbulent and complex market environment, global chemical enterprises must consider transformation. The success of the transformation depends on how to deal with the changes in various aspects, including information technology, digital design and discovery, commercialization of material systems, biotechnology, manufacturing technology and cross ecosystem collaboration.

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at present, there have been doubts about the development of coal chemical industry, which shows that our technology is still difficult to cope with the bottleneck of resources and environment. In order to solve the emission problem of modern coal chemical industry, it is necessary to improve the energy conversion rate from the source through technological progress. The government should strengthen the support of enterprise innovation in policy and establish the environment and conditions conducive to innovation. In the future, coal chemical industry will compete with petrochemical industry and natural gas chemical industry, so the real modern coal chemical industry demonstration project should be technology driven rather than energy driven. Enterprises should be clear that if there is no income from coal resources, technology alone can still have enough competitiveness. "


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