The overall weakness of chemical products market, methanol price center is expected to move down

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

On July 15, the overall domestic chemical market was weak.

Zheng alcohol fell for the third consecutive day, and the 1509 contract rose and fell, finally closing at 2310 yuan / T, down 1.45%. Since July 3, the futures price of Zheng alcohol has experienced a big shock, once falling from nearly 2500 yuan / ton to a low of 2126 yuan / ton, and then rebounded.

On the spot, on July 14, the price of mainstream methanol from Jiangsu port was 2370-2400 yuan / ton.

In addition, in late August, the selling price of Taicang imported goods was 2380 yuan / ton, and that of Ningbo Port methanol was 2470-2480 yuan / ton.

Baocheng futures researcher Chen Dong believes that there are three reasons for the weak trend of methanol in the near future.

First of all, although the Greek debt crisis has reached a rescue agreement, the crisis has not been eliminated, which may cause adverse impact on the later commodity prices.

secondly, Iran's nuclear negotiations threaten oil prices.

thirdly, in addition to the weakening cost side and poor financial attributes, the methanol demand side is also in a weak state.

It is understood that the low demand in the traditional downstream consumption field of methanol is the main reason for the low price trend.

In the near future, the formaldehyde consumption rate in the southern area is limited, and the formaldehyde consumption rate is relatively weak in the southern area, which hinders the overall formaldehyde consumption rate.

By the end of last week, the average operating rate of formaldehyde industry in China was 37.

04%, with a decrease of 0.

24% on a weekly basis.

At the same time, the operating rate of dimethyl ether has also dropped to the low point in the year, and it is expected that there will be little room for improvement in the future.

In addition, affected by the downturn in oil prices, downstream olefins and MTBE also performed poorly, and emerging consumer sectors are also facing the dilemma of poor demand prospects.

Looking forward to the future, Qiu Xiaofeng, a researcher at the methanol industry Service Department of Haitong futures, pointed out that methanol prices will mainly fall in shock, and the decline will become the main keynote from July to September.

The transaction performance in East China is flat, and the port transaction is even more sluggish.

This situation will continue until whether the crude oil will form a double bottom rebound.

Next, pay attention to the change of crude oil price and the situation in the Middle East.

Chen Dong also said that methanol may continue to show a downward trend of concussion in the later stage, and the price center of gravity is expected to move down.

The main reason is that the risk factors of the financial market still exist in the later stage, the downward power of international oil price and the prospect of methanol downstream demand side is not optimistic.


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