The price reform of natural gas is expected to be adjusted again, and the pricing mechanism needs to be improved

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

A few days ago, some media said that the price department of the national development and Reform Commission has studied the price reduction plan of natural gas, and the price adjustment is expected to be implemented on October 1, but the specific price adjustment range is still under discussion.

In 2014, China's natural gas exploration output increased steadily.

According to the National Energy Statistics Bureau, the newly discovered geological reserves in China have reached more than 500 billion cubic meters.

Domestic conventional gas volume also reached 125 billion cubic meters, an increase of 7.

8 billion cubic meters over last year, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. However, it is worth noting that the urban gas and industrial gas consumption have continued to grow.

In order to slow down the total consumption of natural gas in China, the state has successively issued the notice of the national development and Reform Commission on adjusting the price of natural gas in stock for non residents (fgjg [2014] No.

1835) and the guiding opinions on establishing and improving the ladder price system of domestic gas for residents (fgjg [2014] No.

467) and other policies on natural gas price adjustment People all over the country should save energy and strengthen their awareness of environmental protection.

According to the prediction of relevant experts, in the next few years, China's consumption of natural gas will increase by about 25% every year.

In 2015, China's natural gas demand will reach 260 billion cubic meters, of which one third of the total demand needs to rely on imports, which undoubtedly brings certain difficulties to the supply and demand of national energy.

Therefore, it is imperative to improve and implement the domestic natural gas pricing mechanism.

The pricing mechanism of natural gas needs to be improved.

Liu guangbin, a natural gas analyst at Zhuo Chuang information, said in an interview with China national economic news that after years of development, China's natural gas pricing mechanism has now formed a price system based on the market net return method, linking imported fuel oil and imported liquefied gas.

It can be said that it has been a relatively market-oriented pricing mechanism, but it still has not got rid of the guidance of the government, and there is still a certain gap compared with the fully market-oriented "gas and gas competition" price system of the United States and the United Kingdom.

Liu guangbin said that the pricing mechanism linked to alternative energy can not fully reflect the environmental protection value of natural gas.

When the price of alternative energy fluctuates sharply, the price of natural gas will naturally be difficult to stabilize.

The linkage mechanism is not perfect.

Since it is linked with alternative energy, a sound linkage system should be established.

Otherwise, the price of alternative energy has fluctuated greatly, while the price of natural gas has not been reflected, which will cause industry development disorder in a certain period of time.

It is worth mentioning that at the ninth meeting of the central leading group on finance and economics, it was clearly pointed out that the plan for adjusting the price of natural gas should be implemented in practice, the new situation and changes in the current international energy market should be closely followed to ensure energy security.

At the same time, we should accelerate the improvement of the oil strategic reserve system and promote the reform of energy prices and oil and gas system Implementation of the case.

Song Zhichen, a researcher in the energy industry of CIC consultant, said in an interview with "China made economic news", the following points should be paid attention to in the process of changing energy fees into Taxes: first, improve the tax system to avoid the complexity of the tax system caused by fee to tax.

second, reasonably define the tax and its scale, standardize the tax collection channels, and strengthen the collection supervision and control.

finally, the fee reform In the process of tax, the income distribution relationship between the central and local governments should be reasonably adjusted and the transfer payment system between governments at all levels should be improved.

Liu guangbin believes that in the energy sector in the future, more third-party enterprises should enter the upstream and middle reaches, increase the choice of end-users, accelerate the competition mechanism in the natural gas market, and help the natural gas market form reasonable price expectations with the help of natural gas futures, and provide risk monitoring and management for the domestic energy market.

Compared with other energy price adjustment mechanisms, natural gas has no complete pricing cycle and price adjustment window.

In terms of exchanges, the price policies announced by domestic natural gas often take about half a year as a cycle.

However, whenever there are frequent adjustments in the energy supply and demand trend of the domestic market, the national development and Reform Commission and the local price bureau may not be able to make corresponding adjustments in a timely manner, resulting in the lag of natural gas price adjustment.

The natural gas futures mechanism needs to be established urgently.

According to the oil and gas consulting agency, in 2015, the price of non resident gas decreased by 0.

4 yuan to 1 yuan per cubic meter.

Compared with the "four consecutive falls" of domestic refined oil prices, there has been an obvious lag phenomenon, which has seriously affected the growth of domestic natural gas demand.

In 2014, China's apparent consumption of natural gas reached 180 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. In the first half of 2015, the consumption of natural gas was about 90.

6 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year growth of only 2.1%. In addition, the requirements of environmental quality in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and even the whole country are becoming more and more strict.

As a new energy source of energy conservation and environmental protection, natural gas will be more optimistic in terms of supply and demand in the future.

Liu guangbin believes that at present, domestic natural gas has lost its economic advantage.

If it continues to be laissez faire, the future domestic energy structure will deviate from the proposed planning policy of clean energy utilization.

If the environmental protection value of natural gas can not be fully reflected and the linkage mechanism can not be timely implemented, it will certainly bring about market development in the future To a very serious negative impact.

Some analysts pointed out that the decline in the growth rate of China's natural gas demand is conducive to accelerating the process of national natural gas marketization, forcing the natural gas industry to timely adjust the price mechanism and launch new market-oriented tools.

As a matter of fact, the demand of domestic factories using natural gas as raw materials, such as glass factories, ceramic factories and large hotels, is very large.

Therefore, the establishment of a new type of natural gas futures will be in line with the market.

Especially with the establishment of Shanghai Energy Trading Center, the voice of natural gas futures in the domestic market is becoming higher and higher.

At present, the development of foreign natural gas derivatives market has been relatively mature.

In addition to futures, there are more than 200 derivatives.

Through this market-oriented tool, a new market model can be established in the future.

It is also a good choice for gradually opening up the natural gas market and playing a fundamental role in the market.

Therefore, natural gas futures need to be established urgently And implementation.

Liu guangbin believes that in the long run, it is necessary to propose a futures market for natural gas related products.

First, it will help to form an effective forecast of China's medium and long-term natural gas prices, and ultimately establish China's voice in pricing in the international natural gas market.

Second, it can be used for some naturalGas or companies selling natural gas provide a channel to avoid risks.

However, in the short term, China's current natural gas pricing system is still inseparable from the government's intervention.

At the same time, we should consider the important position of natural gas as the lifeblood of energy and China's ability to resist financial risks.

The process of launching natural gas futures in Malaysia is relatively slow.

We can start with the smaller LNG market.

Song Zhichen believes that at present, the degree of market-oriented pricing in the field of natural gas in China is not high, and residents and consumer enterprises can only passively accept price fluctuations.

Moreover, with the increasing proportion of natural gas in primary energy, the marketization of natural gas pricing mechanism needs to be accelerated.

However, once the marketization reform is started, the future price may fluctuate significantly, which requires one Therefore, natural gas futures with hedging function should be launched as soon as possible.

In recent years, in order to meet the domestic demand for natural gas, China has also been accelerating the supporting construction of natural gas infrastructure and vigorously developing the construction of coastal natural gas receiving and unloading stations.

At present, as far as the whole country is concerned, LNG projects such as Shenzhen, Putian, Yangshan, Nantong and Dalian have been under construction or put into use.

In the interview, the reporter learned that in the future, LNG ships, as the main means of LNG transportation, will continue to enter and leave China's coastal ports, and natural gas trading will become increasingly frequent.

With the continuous optimization of consumption structure and the continuous improvement of domestic natural gas pricing mechanism, our country will continue to make new progress in the supply and demand of natural gas energy.

The national development and Reform Commission and other competent departments of domestic energy have successively issued the coal bed methane industrial policy, the Twelfth Five Year Plan for the development and utilization of coal bed methane (coal mine gas)《 According to the policies such as coal deep processing demonstration project planning, shale gas industry policy, the 12th Five Year Plan for shale gas development, and the notice on regulating the development of coal to natural gas industry, relevant experts believe that these policies obviously bring the unconventional natural gas such as coalbed methane and shale gas into the new management, and determine the specific charging standard of coal to natural gas business Substantial progress has been made in easing domestic energy demand.

According to the national energy structure statistics, in 2014, China's total unconventional gas production was 5.

72 billion cubic meters, including coalbed methane, shale gas and coal based natural gas.

Large coal seam development enterprises, such as Jinmei, Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC (holding Zoomlion coal) and Henan coalbed methane company, will gradually industrialize in the future and become an effective supplement to natural gas.

Sun Yang, natural gas analyst of Zhongyu information, said in an interview with China made economic news that "export internal supply" has formed the general trend of natural gas supply in our country.

With the launch of the second round of price reform policy for natural gas, international crude oil prices and coal prices have continued to fall, and the overall phenomenon of China's natural gas has become better and better.

Using natural gas to adjust the national power structure, meet the power demand of residents, improve and protect the ecological environment, and promote the coordinated development of resources, environment and economy will also become the inevitable trend of future economic development.

Sun Yang said that with the continuous development of the natural gas market, the pricing mechanism of natural gas is gradually transiting from government pricing to market-oriented pricing, and the price reform of natural gas has reached a critical stage to realize market-oriented pricing.

Let the invisible hand of the market control, and through the reasonable use of natural gas futures to help the natural gas market to form a reasonable price expectation, provide risk monitoring and management, and push the development of domestic natural gas into a brighter future.

(Nguyen SIH Lim.

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