The rise of coal to olefins is the general trend

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
China is the fourth largest producer of PE / > LLDPE in the world. As of 2014, China's LLDPE production capacity was about 15.16 million tons, mainly concentrated in PetroChina and Sinopec. The capacity and output of "two barrels of oil" accounted for more than 80% of the total domestic capacity and production. The sales of

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and "two barrels of oil" are divided into direct sales and distribution, accounting for 20% and 80% respectively. Direct selling means that "two barrels of oil" directly sells LLDPE to downstream enterprises, while distribution means that "two barrels of oil" establishes a unified sales company, and then sells to the lower level distributors through the sales company. Generally speaking, traders or middlemen need to sign a purchase and sales contract with the sales company set up by "two barrels of oil" before they can become their first-class distributors. The production capacity of

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and "two barrels of oil" is relatively concentrated, while the downstream traders, middlemen and film production enterprises are relatively scattered. Therefore, the "two barrels of oil" has an advantage in the pricing of LLDPE. No matter the price of LLDPE rises or falls, the distributor of "two barrels of oil" must maintain a stable purchase volume every month and strictly perform the contract, otherwise it will be disqualified as a first-class distributor. For example, in January 2015, the price of plastics once fell below 8000 yuan / ton. Based on the judgment of the supply and demand pattern of plastics, downstream enterprises believe that the space for LLDPE prices to continue to decline is relatively limited. As the terminal price is relatively stable, it will be profitable to produce LLDPE at 8000 yuan / ton. Enterprises hope to stock up on LLDPE at this price. However, due to the oligarchy of "two barrels of oil", downstream enterprises can not increase their stock in the spot market, and the downstream enterprises become the passive receivers of the "two barrels of oil" pricing strategy.

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in addition, when the LLDPE inventory of petrochemical enterprises is low, "two barrels of oil" will be reluctant to sell, thus stimulating the price rise of LLDPE. On the contrary, when the LLDPE inventory of petrochemical enterprises is high, "two barrels of oil" will reduce the inventory by means of reducing the price and exchange cash flow. "DPE" and "DPE" can affect the market position by adjusting the price of DPE.

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let us see what changes will happen to the LLDPE capacity pattern in the future? In 2015, 1.8 million tons of LLDPE capacity was added in China. Among them, Zhejiang Xingxing new energy phase I is 300000 tons, Qinghai Damei coal is 300000 tons, Shaanxi Shenhua Shenmu is 300000 tons, China Coal Mengda new energy chemical phase I is 300000 tons, Jiutai energy Inner Mongolia company phase II is 250000 tons, and Zhongan United coal chemical phase I is 350000 tons.

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need to be noted that the increased LLDPE capacity in China in 2015 is coal to olefin. China has the characteristics of rich coal, less oil and less gas, so many domestic chemical industries are using coal chemical industry to replace oil and gas chemical industry, and coal to olefin is the most important part of coal chemical industry. Since July 2014, the international crude oil price has fallen sharply, and the price advantage of coal chemical industry is no longer better than that of petrochemical industry, and a large number of coal to olefin enterprises have postponed their production. However, the author believes that with the rise of crude oil price, the rise of coal to olefins is the general trend. In the future, the proportion of "two barrels of oil" in domestic LLDPE capacity will gradually decrease, and its influence on price will also be weakened, and the influence of cost and demand on LLDPE price will be strengthened.


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