The rise of international oil price reverses and chemicals enter the cold winter again

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
The rise of international oil price of

reversed and chemicals entered the cold winter again. Yesterday, plastics, PP, PTA and other star futures varieties fell across the board. Analysts believe that crude oil prices from up to down, will directly pull down the production costs of downstream products. How to deduce energy chemicals in the future depends on the fluctuation trend of crude oil. However, in view of the fact that crude oil continues to fall after rebound, the pressure on energy chemical products has not been reduced, and it may continue to show weakness in the future.

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closely follow the trend of oil price, and the trend of

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energy and chemical products has always been closely following the trend of oil price. This is because the prices of chemicals are mainly determined by upstream costs and their own supply and demand. In the long run, the change of crude oil price has a guiding effect on the term price of chemical products.

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over the past year, the continuous decline in crude oil has overshadowed the impact of supply and demand of each commodity. At present, the relevant futures products listed in China, such as fuel oil, PP, PE / > LLDPE, PVC, PTA and synthetic rubber, are downstream products of crude oil. The sharp drop of crude oil price directly reduces the production cost of downstream products, thus making the market prices of these products fall accordingly.

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recently, the international oil price ended its sharp rebound and fell back. Oil prices fell nearly 4% on Monday as Russia reiterated that it would not cut production and ruled out an agreement with OPEC. Affected by this, chemicals in the domestic futures market have been hit hard. Yesterday, the chemical industry was almost wiped out. Among them, Dalian plastics led the decline in the futures market, with the main contract of 1601 bottoming down, breaking a new low of 8380 yuan / ton for more than a week, down 1.69%. Polypropylene 1601 contract yesterday hit 7800 yuan, a first-line failure, jump short and open low on Tuesday, short attack, hit the price down, and finally closed at 7582 yuan / ton, a decline of 1.61%. Pta1601 contract dived in the night market, and then traded around 4530 yuan. It was restrained and then rose in the afternoon, falling 1.3%. Pvc1601 contract turned red in the afternoon, up 0.1%. Zheng Chun's late plate shot up, but the overall still hovered near the record low. The overall trend of

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may continue to be weak. After the rapid rise of

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, they will slowly fall back. The principle of the law of gravity is still applicable to the current oil market Some organizations said that.

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crude oil prices soared for a time last month, with a cumulative increase of nearly 30% in three trading days. Then, the oil price reversed a third of the above-mentioned increase. Since then, the US crude oil benchmark price has been hovering at the level of $46 / barrel.

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due to the strong upward momentum of oil prices, many institutions believe that the rebound may be difficult to sustain. Hedge funds' short positions in crude oil futures rose to their highest level since March last month, according to the commodity futures trading commission.

"the short-lived rebound shows that the fundamentals of crude oil have not changed, and the downward pressure on oil prices seems unlikely to be eliminated." The American Energy Information Association (EIA) lowered its forecast for US crude oil production this year after adjusting the way of data collection. However, the small decline in production has not changed the fact that the global crude oil supply is abundant.

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however, Zhou Qian, a senior analyst in the chemical industry of the business society, believes that considering that it will take a certain period of time for the chemical products to be transmitted to the end of the downward cycle, the overall chemical market will develop well in September, but a certain buffer time is needed. Under the traditional circumstances, the downstream product operating rate will increase in September, and the arrival of "Jinjiu" has a certain positive support for chemical products. It is expected that the overall performance of the chemical sector will be better in late September.

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jump out of the commodity futures market to observe. According to the price monitoring of business agencies, there were 27 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in August 2015, among which 4 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities were aniline (9.71%), chloroform (7.56%) and caustic soda (6.72%). There were 87 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 28.4% of the total number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three products were liquid chlorine (- 39.06%), pure benzene (- 22.88%) and crude benzene (- 20.18%).

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and in the institutional research reports contacted by reporters, most of them continue to be bearish on chemicals. For example, Xinhu futures believes that the overall atmosphere of short-term commodities has improved, mainly unilateral wait-and-see, the weakness of Shanghai Rubber in the medium and long-term is difficult to change. Under the pressure of US dollar appreciation, the currencies of Southeast Asian main producing countries will depreciate or open up a new round of downward space for internal and external rubber. In the later stage, we can pay attention to the reverse position of 1601-1605 contracts.

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PTA futures may be the only optimistic varieties. "The short-term market trend or to oversold rebound, medium and long-term trend to follow crude oil, operation more thinking, attention to 1601-1605 contract position." Some organizations said that.


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