The way out of butanol and octanol

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-10

in the case of diversified sources of raw materials, butanol and octanol market, one of the downstream derivatives of propylene, presents different competitive patterns.

with the continuous construction of butanol and octanol units in coastal areas, the domestic butanol and octanol production capacity began to increase significantly in 2010, and the domestic demand also increased significantly with the stimulating growth of China's economy, and the market price continued to rise. However, with the gradual reduction of the impact of relevant domestic stimulus policies in 2011, the growth of domestic demand has declined rapidly. The balance of supply and demand of butanol and octanol market has also changed from tight supply to sufficient supply or even surplus, and the import of butanol and octanol has been declining.

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at present, the market competition of butanol and octanol in China is becoming more and more fierce, and the product price has been falling all the way, and it has lost a lot of profits in the past and is heading for a loss. The sharp decline in the price of butanol and octanol has led to a significant reduction in the load of domestic units, and some units are shut down. The production capacity of

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expanded rapidly. Around 2010, the self-sufficiency rate of n-butanol and isooctanol in China was 50% - 60%, and the product profit was high, which stimulated the domestic investment enthusiasm. Moreover, the development of diversified raw materials broke the monopoly status of the two groups and gave investors more opportunities.

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in the construction of domestic butanol and octanol industry in recent years, the attitude of other enterprises to enter the butanol and octanol industry is very firm. The two groups are no longer monopolistic, and have made some adjustments to their industries. Sinopec chose to withdraw part of isooctanol and increase n-butanol. The development and construction of CNPC's enterprises are more balanced. The capacity construction of new entrants is very fast, and with the high crude oil price in the early stage, the diversified development of raw materials has a good development prospect. The new butanol and octanol project is no longer limited to the mode of purchasing propylene raw materials to build butanol octanol unit.

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in the construction of butanol and octanol units in recent two years, the upstream integration development has appeared among the new entrants, and the downstream supporting butanol and octanol unit projects of PDH project and MTO project began to appear. According to the follow-up project construction, it will increase gradually. This will change the competition pattern of butanol and octanol industry from the source of raw materials. Therefore, under the guidance of crude oil price fluctuations in different stages, the future butanol and octanol products will become more complicated following the changes of propylene industry competition pattern.

n-butanol

in recent years, the production capacity of n-butanol in China has been developed rapidly, and the production capacity has increased rapidly. By the end of 2013, China's n-butanol production capacity has reached 1.5 million tons, an increase of 900000 tons compared with the beginning of 2009, with an average annual growth rate of 20%.

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in 2014, with the completion of Sichuan Petrochemical and Nanjing Wison MTO projects, the domestic n-butanol production capacity further increased to 1.81 million tons / year. The

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n-butanol industry has also changed the situation that PetroChina and Sinopec were the dominant in the past. The production capacity of other types of n-butanol has increased from 36% in 2009 to 53% in 2014. In 2014, Sinopec accounted for 21%, PetroChina accounted for 26%, other synthetic methods accounted for 37%, and biological method accounted for 16%. Specifically speaking,

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, Sinopec Yangzi BASF company is still the largest n-butanol production enterprise. In the second group are PetroChina Sichuan Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Tianjin Bohai Chemical, Shandong Luxi Chemical, etc. The propylene source of

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oil companies is still mainly from refining and chemical integration, and the source is still oil. The butanol and octanol projects of Tianjin Bohai Chemical and Nanjing Wison MTO project respectively rely on PDH and MTO units, showing different raw material source orientation of butanol and octanol units in the future. In 2013, the production capacity of isooctanol in China reached 1.49 million tons / year, an increase of 900000 tons / year compared with the beginning of 2009, with an average annual growth rate of 20.4%. With the completion of butanol and octanol units downstream of Sichuan Petrochemical and Nanjing Wison MTO project, the domestic isooctanol production capacity has reached 1.705 million tons / year.

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are in the development of isooctanol industry. After Yangzi Petrochemical made adjustment in 2011, some of Sinopec's isooctanol business withdrew from the isooctanol industry and produced n-butanol. In recent four years, the production capacity has no longer increased. In the development of PetroChina's butanol and octanol business, the production capacity of isooctanol is still growing in recent years. On the whole, the proportion of isooctyl alcohol in the two groups has been declining, and the trend of going abroad and promoting people's livelihood is on the whole. By 2014, Sinopec and PetroChina accounted for 18% and 20% of production capacity respectively. Other enterprises have accounted for 62%, an increase of 50% compared with 2009. Specifically speaking,

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, Tianjin Bohai Chemical has become the largest ISO octanol manufacturer in China, followed by Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical, Shandong lihuayi group, Jianlan chemical, Daqing Petrochemical, Nanjing Huisheng, Jilin Petrochemical, etc.

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at present, the construction of butanol and octanol in China is still continuing. In 2015, there will be two sets of large-scale butanol and octanol units put into production, which are Sinopec Anqing Petrochemical Company and Shandong Yantai Wanhua Group, with plant capacity of 210000 T / A and 225000 T / a respectively. In addition, some projects are in the early stage of construction and are planned to be put into operation after 2015. With the changes of butanol and octanol market competition, the potential risks of these projects are increasing. The consumption growth of

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slows down, and the downstream consumption growth of domestic butanol and octanol in

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is the fundamental driving force for the continuous construction and development of China's production capacity in recent years. However, with the application of plasticizers (DBP and DOP) in the downstream of butanol and octanol is limited, the related consumption growth began to slow down or even shrink. This also caused the practitioners to worry about the future market development prospects of butanol and octanol. In recent years,

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market consumption of n-butanol has been expanding, and has reached 1.32 million tons / year. However, with the slowdown of China's economic growth and the increase of related restrictions, the downstream consumption field has been reduced, and the consumption growth rate has also been slowing down, which was only 1.7% in 2013. The consumption of

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isooctanol was affected by the slowdown of domestic DOP consumption trend in recent years, and fell to the bottom in 2011. After rebounding in 2012, the consumption began to decline, with a decrease rate of 1.3%, and the consumption volume was 1.17 million tons.

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in China are mainly used to produce dioctyl phthalate (DOP) and isooctyl acrylate, accounting for 87% and 7% respectively in 2013The pattern of octanol supply and demand will tend to be oversupply in the short term, the domestic unit operating rate will decline in the short term, and the long-term operating rate will recover, but it will also be around 70%, and the construction uncertainty of new projects will increase.

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although there are many new butanol and octanol units, the import market share of n-butanol in 2013 is still as high as 31%. Judging from the market share of imported products and the rapid growth of n-butanol consumption, there is still room for development in the future. In terms of market supply and demand development, there is still market space at present, and the long-term domestic market pattern of n-butanol tends to balance supply and demand and be self-sufficient. The octanol market of

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is limited by DOP consumption, and the short-term market consumption will still have a certain growth, but the future development prospects are still dim. From the perspective of octanol market prospect, there is great uncertainty in the future market development. Even if the consumption does not shrink, the growth rate will be reduced to about 3%. However, the speed of production capacity construction is far faster than the market growth rate, and it is still difficult to digest the market share of imported products. Therefore, the market prospect of octanol is generally expected to be bleak.

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octanol industry will face two trends: on the one hand, the fierce competition of octanol products in the future will increase the possibility of forced withdrawal of some production capacity, so the possibility of domestic octanol production reshuffle will be greatly enhanced; on the other hand, this will increase the investment risk of new projects, increase the possibility of cancellation or postponement of some projects, and alleviate the future competition situation 。

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butanol and octanol industry should focus on optimizing the downstream product structure and developing into special plasticizers with high added value and high technical content. In addition, the preliminary research on plasticizers based on Nonanol and decanol to replace DOP should be paid attention to. "