The window period of natural gas price adjustment reappears

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

after the national development and Reform Commission announced in February 2015 that the price of non residential gas stock gas and incremental valve station price should be combined, the market's expectation of natural gas price adjustment has been strong again in the near future. In an interview with China Securities Daily, many market participants said that from the perspective of market supply and demand situation, encouraging clean energy consumption and solving environmental problems, the natural gas price reduction is the general trend. It is expected that the price adjustment plan will be announced in the third quarter, and the price reduction range of non resident natural gas may be between 0.4 and 1.0 yuan / m3. If the gas price of

and

is lowered, the development of downstream natural gas industry will be improved firstly, which will be beneficial to natural gas industry, power generation, vehicle and ship transportation, city gas and other enterprises, but it will have certain impact on upstream production and exploitation, especially unconventional natural gas exploitation. How to coordinate the interests of upstream and downstream and promote the natural gas price to reflect the relationship between supply and demand more reasonably will be the proposition to be considered while adjusting the price.

and

gas prices are expected to decline strongly. According to the current market supply and demand situation, if the regulation is deregulated, the price should be a downward trend. " An oil company official pointed out to the reporter of China Securities Journal. Luozuo County, an expert in

and

from Sinopec petroleum exploration and Development Research Institute, also believes that at present, the global natural gas supply is sufficient, and from the perspective of solving environmental problems, natural gas as a low-carbon energy in the short term is a realistic available means, so the price reduction of natural gas is the general trend. Taking the United States as an example, the effective solution of environmental problems in the United States depends on the low price of natural gas to a certain extent. Moreover, it is planning to build new natural gas chemical industry, natural gas power generation and other industries in China. With such a large population and serious environmental problems in China, we should encourage the promotion of natural gas consumption. " Luozuo County said. Chen Yunying, senior natural gas analyst of

and

, pointed out that according to the import data in the first half of 2015, the price adjustment range of natural gas is about 1 yuan / m3. However, how long the pricing cycle the NDRC chooses at the time point of natural gas price adjustment will affect the final price adjustment range. In addition, if the price adjustment range is too large, it will cause greater pressure on upstream enterprises, so it is necessary to consider the upstream and downstream demand as a whole. "Taking into account various variables, our price adjustment expectations range from 0.3 to 0.5 yuan / square." Chen Yunying said.

and

Shenyin Hongyuan believes that the merger of natural gas prices in April 2015 has laid the foundation for promoting the marketization of natural gas prices. China has actively adjusted the structure of imported energy and intentionally controlled the price of imported energy, which also shows that there is still room for domestic natural gas prices to fall. In addition, the international oil price continues to go low, which lowers the international natural gas price, so it is imperative to lower the domestic gas price. "We expect the reduction space to be 0.5 yuan / m3. The downstream is sensitive to price. If the price of natural gas is lowered by 1 yuan and 0.5 yuan, the corresponding industrial demand increment will be 32 billion cubic meters and 16 billion cubic meters respectively, which will drive the industry demand significantly

and

Founder Securities believe that international crude oil prices and liquefied petroleum gas prices have fallen sharply since June 2014, with a drop of nearly 50% in half a year. It is expected that the 10-month pricing cycle adopted by the NDRC is quite likely. The price of natural gas stations should be reduced by about 17.03% based on the price in February 2015, that is, about 0.44-0.47 yuan / m3.

"at present, the situation that domestic natural gas supply exceeds demand has basically taken shape. The bargaining power of downstream users has been improved. In addition, the price of direct supply gas can be negotiated by the upstream and downstream. In fact, the price of natural gas in some regions and industries has been reduced." Chen Yunying said.

and

downstream gas enterprises benefit from

and

industry insiders pointed out that the reduction of gas price will first of all benefit the development of downstream natural gas industry, and form a certain positive effect on natural gas industry, power generation, vehicle and ship transportation, urban combustion and other industries.

Founder Securities believes that the increase of urban domestic gas consumption is mainly due to the increase of urban natural gas popularization rate and the substitution of natural gas for artificial gas and liquefied petroleum gas; the increase of industrial gas consumption is mainly due to the increase in the demand for natural gas raw materials in chemical industries such as new boiler coal to gas and hydrogen production; and the transportation gas consumption depends on the construction of gas filling stations and the oil and gas economy Economic comparison. The price of

,

and "non resident incremental gas" has been lowered, which will bring the cost side decline to the gas distribution market in the short term. At present, the linkage mechanism has not been established for terminal gas prices including residential gas and industrial and commercial gas. Under the background of rapid marketization of gate station prices, the sensitivity of terminal prices to crude oil prices is much weaker than that of gate stations. City gas distributors are expected to gain higher profits in this round of oil price decline. " Founder Securities pointed out.

and

at present, the listed city gas companies mainly include Shenzhen gas, Changchun gas, Chongqing gas, Shaanxi natural gas, Guoxin energy, Jinhong energy, etc.

and

transportation gas industry will also benefit. According to Chen Yunying, at present, there are 34 million CNG vehicles in China, and the price reduction of natural gas will be conducted through the price adjustment of the government, which will reduce the gas cost of CNG vehicles. For LNG vehicles, the current LNG market price is relatively low, and the elasticity may not be as great as that of CNG vehicles, but it will indirectly share the benefits of domestic LNG ex factory price reduction.

and

, but for upstream enterprises, the reduction of gas price will undoubtedly greatly hurt their upstream exploitation profits, especially unconventional natural gas exploitation. At present, the oil and gas prices of

and

are low, and the pressure on the upstream is relatively large. But at the national level, for the people, it creates welfare, which can be said that the upstream is a kind of "policy loss." "If the oil and gas prices remain low, it will be good for the downstream petrochemical industry and natural gas processing and utilization, which will help the integrated oil companies to balance their profits," said Luozuo county

and

gradually promote the marketization of

and

. China's natural gas price reform started from the "Guangdong and Guangxi" pilot project in 2011, and officially started in 2013. After two increases in the stock gas in 2013 and 2014, the incremental gas was lowered in April this year, realizing the price integration of natural gas stock gas and incremental gas, and liberalizing the price of direct supply gas for users. When the price adjustment plan of

and

was announced in early February this year, the relevant person in charge of the national development and Reform Commission pointed out that the ultimate goal of the price reform of natural gas was
TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.