There is room for further improvement in the overall market of chemical industry in the second quarter

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
At the end of the second quarter, the economy will be stabilized. From the perspective of industrial growth rate, investment, consumption and other indicators,

showed an overall downward trend in the first quarter, but it has not yet been fully stabilized. Both price and leading indicators indicate that China's economic growth rate is likely to "break 7" in the first quarter. However, judging from the official PMI index released in March, the bottom of the economy may have already appeared. In the first quarter, fiscal, real estate and monetary policies have begun to take care of the economy. It is expected that there will be sustained favorable policies to escort the economy in the second quarter, and the economy will be bottomed out and stabilized in the second quarter. The overall chemical industry of

and

will recover slowly. From the second half of 2013, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in chemical industry began to decline, especially in 2014. It is expected that the situation of serious overcapacity in the whole industry will be eased this year, but in the second quarter, the whole industry is still in the second half of the de capacity stage after the last round of expansion. The market interest rate of

and

is down, which is good for enterprises with high leverage ratio. As we expected earlier, the central bank cut interest rates again in the first quarter, and the reduction of market interest rates is conducive to reducing the financial expenses of chemical enterprises. Especially for the enterprises with high capital leverage ratio, the benefits brought by the interest rate reduction cycle of monetary policy will be gradually released.

and

oil and gas prices are expected to stay low. The oil price in the first quarter is still at a low level. Considering the high crude oil inventory in the United States, the weak willingness of OPEC to raise prices and the improvement of the situation in Iran, we expect that there will be a sharp rebound in the second quarter, which is less likely. The overall valuation of

and

chemical industry is reasonable, and there are opportunities for subdivision industries. In the first quarter, the industry valuation entered an upward channel. Based on the overall market valuation level, from the P / e point of view, the industry valuation level is reasonable. From the existing p / b level, we believe that there is still room for further improvement in the chemical industry valuation in the second quarter, while there are more opportunities for some sub sectors which are less affected by the overall economy and the periodicity of large industries.


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