Uncertainties in the way of styrene price rebound

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09
Entering the middle of August, the domestic styrene market price ended the situation of continuous decline in the early stage, and realized the rebound after falling. The most important factor of its rebound is the early empty order compensation. After the recent accelerated decline, the early empty sheet profit in the market is rich. It is roughly estimated that the single ton profit is more than 500 yuan / ton, and some short profit lock up intention is more obvious. At the same time, the rapid depreciation of RMB has triggered the market speculation enthusiasm. For the styrene market, which has always been "not afraid of nothing, but afraid of small things", people in the market hyped the increase of import cost caused by RMB devaluation, and received positive effects. The spot price center of the mainstream East China market rebounded significantly, and the spot market stood at the 9000 yuan / T level again. Sun Nengji, an analyst with

gold and silver island, said that the rapid depreciation of the RMB is not a "thigh" that can be relied on for a long time. The two days before the devaluation had been so large that the space for further devaluation was narrowed. After all, the channel for sustained rapid depreciation has not been opened yet. Once the hype of "RMB devaluation" weakens, the current market is bound to return again Fundamentals. In recent years, although the demand and supply of ports in East China will increase steadily compared with the demand and supply rhythm of ports in the early stage, the number of ships will increase steadily compared with the demand and supply of ports in East China. After all, judging from the data of previous years, this stage is often a process of gradual accumulation of port inventory. At the same time, the current domestic styrene refinery's operating load is generally stable, which has remained above 70% in the near future, and the overall supply of the field is relatively adequate. At present, the overall operating load of the downstream is slightly lower than that of the previous period. The operating rates of ABS and PS are 62% and 56% respectively, Compared with the previous period, there is little change, so the downstream support for the raw material market is not obvious.

and

from the external news, the voice of the mainstream foreign institutions on the overall crude oil price is relatively obvious. The long-term crude oil price continues to fall or is called a high probability event. At the same time, the international pure benzene price has fallen to varying degrees recently, and the Asian ethylene price has also fallen sharply. Under this pressure, it is expected that the Asian styrene market will continue to fall.

and

, but from the current domestic macro perspective, the economic data in July fell down in an all-round way. Among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the whole society's fixed assets investment dropped to 11.2% again in July, down 0.2% from January to June. After a slight rebound in June, infrastructure investment dropped significantly in July, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 18.2%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared with January June.

sun Nengji said that with the rebound of prices, the follow-up of market buying is bound to decline. At the same time, once the enthusiasm of market speculation cools, the motivation to continue to attack the market will weaken. Under the situation of relatively weak internal and external information, if periodic short pressure, market mentality or pressure again, there are still many market fluctuations and falling back probably.


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