Weekly topic: from the change of plastic industry to see whether the fundamentals are false recovery?

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

[weekly topic on April 5] on April 1, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.

2 in March, which was the first time since August last year to return above the boom and bust line.

in March, the official non manufacturing PMI was 53.

8, with a previous value of 52.

7, and the non manufacturing industry also accelerated its expansion.

In addition, the investment in real estate development in China increased by 3% from January to February, and the profits of Industrial Enterprises above designated scale increased by 4.

8% from January to February.

A number of recent economic data have improved, indicating that China's economy shows signs of improvement in the short term.

The editorial department of Guangdong Plastics Exchange launched in-depth discussions on the topic of "whether the fundamentals are really warming from the change of the plasticizing industry".

[editor's words] Liu Zhiqiang: the main downstream of PVC is pipes and profiles, and the consumption is concentrated in the real estate field.

Therefore, the change of PVC market can reflect the change of real estate market to a certain extent, and then reflect the basic cold and warm from the side.

Since 2016, the PVC market has gradually entered the upward channel, and the price has risen sharply.

Compared with the end of last year, the PVC market price has increased by more than 600 yuan / ton.

During this period, the rise in prices was due to seasonal factors and supported by the warming of terminal demand.

Recently, the government has issued the policy of "reducing interest rate and reducing reserve rate" and "comprehensively opening up the second child", which makes the long silent real estate market warm again.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the investment in real estate development increased by 3% from January to February.

The slight recovery of the real estate market has led to the heating up of PVC downstream pipe and profile consumption.

It is understood that in the first quarter, profile enterprises, especially those in the North such as Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and other regions, obviously resumed their work, and their enthusiasm for purchasing raw PVC increased, which supported the continuous rise of PVC prices.

However, the PVC market changes seasonally.

The recovery of short-term demand does not mean that it is the same in the long-term, and it can not reflect the complete recovery of fundamentals.

Since the end of March, the follow-up speed of PVC terminal demand industry slowed down, causing some markets to fall into the situation of overstocking of goods, and PVC prices began to fall from a high level.

Although manufacturers in the future market still have the possibility of borrowing concentrated spring inspection by chlor alkali enterprises for hype, the aftermarket demand may have been overdrawn in the early stage, and the support for price rise is slightly weak.

Liu ruimao: as a basic chemical industry, caustic soda industry has many kinds of products and a great degree of correlation.

The downstream fields involve thousands of varieties.

The products are widely used in agriculture, petrochemical, light industry, textile, chemical building materials, metallurgy and other fields of the national economy.

Therefore, its market changes to a certain extent can reflect whether the macro-economy is really picking up.

In the first quarter, the domestic caustic soda market showed a warming pattern.

Taking Shandong 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda and Inner Mongolia 99% flake caustic soda as examples, the transaction prices of the two places increased by 5% and 2% respectively compared with the end of last year, and the profit per ton was 20-50 yuan.

The downstream demand situation has improved, and the operating rate of domestic alumina and chemical fiber industries has increased to 80%.

Some new projects of alumina plants have been put into operation, and the purchase price of caustic soda has increased.

The purchase orders of caustic soda in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia have increased.

Business confidence in the market has improved significantly.

From the perspective of the troika driving the economy, the "investment and export" situation of the caustic soda industry is relatively stable, but the "consumption" has increased.

Although it can not be completely said that the industry has begun to turn, but from the current situation that the downstream industry of alkali consumption is warming up and not seasonal warming up, it shows that the basic situation is stabilizing and improving.

Of course, the caustic soda industry is also faced with pressure from the national policies of de capacity, de stocking, environmental protection, and hazardous chemicals supervision.

If the future market situation can further strengthen, it can provide strong support for the economic recovery.

Li Jianfeng: judging from the recent economic data released in succession, the fundamentals of the domestic economy are stabilizing.

Many professional analysts believe that the economic situation in March will improve to a certain extent.

From the perspective of the PE industry, throughout the first quarter, the price increase of PE was indeed large.

Compared with the pessimistic and cold market at the end of last year, whether upstream manufacturers or midstream traders raised prices in turn, all aspects were in full swing.

The overall situation of downstream start-up is stable, but the operating rate of downstream plastic products manufacturers is general.

Recently, some small and medium-sized factories have reduced their operations due to insufficient orders or high raw material prices.

In addition, some traders said that the transaction situation of high price raw materials was not very optimistic, and the terminal took a wait-and-see attitude towards high price raw materials, and prepared goods more carefully.

Generally speaking, the main factors of this round of PE price rise are market driven, device maintenance effect and industry hype.

There is no obvious evidence of economic improvement in terminal demand.

Therefore, the improvement of economic indicators may be due to the short-term benefits of national policies, and the medium-term economy is still in a low position.

Yan Xiaobing: since 2016, the ABS market has continued to improve, mainly in the following three aspects: 1.

At present, the profit per ton of ABS is about 400 yuan, reversing the loss situation in the early stage. 2. Most ABS manufacturers in Asia have a good sales situation in the past three months, the shipment speed is obviously accelerated, and most manufacturers have a better pre-sale situation. 3. The domestic ABS US dollar market has gradually got rid of the lowest point since 2009, and the price has been rising all the way.

Low level replenishment demand broke out, raw material cost went up, manufacturers actively pushed up and market speculation demand was strong.

However, the situation of ABS market is not very optimistic, there are internal worries.

From the upstream point of view, East China styrene port inventory rose sharply in March, indicating that ABS manufacturers' demand for raw materials decreased.

On the downstream side, the start-up of household appliances industry has improved slightly, but the situation of goods moving in the market is general, the speed of goods circulation is slow, and there is also a lack of effective support for ABS.

Overall, ABS as one of the general plastics, the market has improved significantly compared with the end of December last year.

However, considering the small proportion of ABS in the total market sales, the improvement of the industry does not mean that the macro-economy is warming up.

Only the improvement of more industries can provide support for the overall economic recovery.

In addition, the improvement of short-term economic data can boost market confidence, but whether it can be sustained remains to be seen.

(personal opinion, for reference only).