What are the factors affecting coal chemical industry during the 13th Five Year Plan period?

wallpapers Industry 2020-12-09

2016 is the first year of the 13th five year plan.

After a sudden rise in the 11th five year plan, how will the coal chemical industry develop in the 13th Five Year Plan period? What challenges will the industry face? What suggestions will the industry put forward for the development of coal chemical industry in the 13th five year plan? The reporter conducted an interview on this.

The development of oil price and coal chemical industry cannot be separated from oil price.

Since July 2014, the international oil price has been falling continuously, reaching as low as $27 / barrel.

Is low oil price temporary or long-term? Is it market fluctuation or development trend? People in the industry have different opinions on this.

Li Runsheng, vice president of the China Petrochemical Federation, is relatively optimistic.

He still puts forward the following basic factors for oil prices, which are not determined by many international institutions.

According to the forecast of supply-demand relationship change, the international oil price is expected to rise again around 2017.

before 2020, the international oil price should be below $80 / barrel, and it is expected to return to the level of $80 / barrel by 2020.

" However, Bai Yi, vice president of the Institute of petroleum and chemical industry planning, believes that the downturn in crude oil prices will be long-term: "combined with OPEC's oil price analysis and the data of domestic professional departments, the crude oil price may be around $60 / barrel in 2020.

" In the interview, the reporter found that with the rise of global new energy, many people in the industry believe that the low oil price will become a trend.

This view has even been documented.

On January 26, 2016, PetroChina (7.

200, - 0.

02, - 0.

28%) economic and Technological Research Institute issued the 2015 domestic and foreign oil and gas industry development report.

According to the report, the average annual prices of light crude oil and Brent crude oil futures in the United States will be between $40 and $50 per barrel in 2016.

The loose situation in the world oil market will be difficult to ease in the short term, and the rebound of international oil prices will be weak.

The report also predicts that the degree of loose supply and demand in the world natural gas market will be further intensified, the international oil and gas prices will remain low, and the surplus crude oil in the market will turn into the surplus of refined oil.

The long-term downturn of oil price directly affects the market prospect of coal chemical industry, which undoubtedly becomes a barrier for the development of coal chemical industry.

If China's coal chemical industry wants to further develop in the 13th five year plan, it must first face and bear the fact that the international oil price has fallen.

This has become a consensus in the industry.

Gu zongqin, President of the petroleum and Chemical Industry Planning Institute, believes that the reduction of oil price will inevitably lead to poor economic benefits of coal chemical industry.

This is equivalent to the coal chemical project.

"Coal chemical projects are suffering from severe winter, and many of them had good benefits.

Now, due to the low oil price, coal chemical projects are not feasible.

Even if some projects have entered the production stage, they are still struggling.

If the international oil price is low for a long time, it is difficult for China's coal chemical projects to have a big development.

" Gu said.

Ma Wen, former director of Greenpeace climate and energy project, also believes that the development of modern coal chemical industry in the 13th five year plan should first withstand the pressure of today's low oil prices.

"If the world oil price keeps at a low level, the future of modern coal chemical industry will be very dim.

" On April 8, this year, the Sinopec (4.

710, 0.03, 0.64%) Federation issued the early warning report on the production capacity of petrochemical industry in 2016, aiming at the impact of low oil price on coal chemical industry, the following early warning was made: due to the impact of low oil price and increasingly stringent environmental protection laws and regulations, the proposed and planned projects of coal chemical industry are slowing down, and some new production capacity may be delayed.

Under the condition of low oil price, if there is no significant favorable policy, the capacity utilization rate of coal chemical industry will further decline.

In recent years, the policy environment for coal chemical industry is becoming more and more strict.

In July 2014, the National Energy Administration issued the notice on standardizing the scientific and orderly development of coal to liquid and coal to natural gas industries, which includes strict industry access requirements, standardizing project approval procedures, further strengthening the allocation of production factors and resources, planning pilot demonstration, etc.

, and strictly controlling the construction and approval process of coal chemical projects.

In addition, in September of the same year, the national development and Reform Commission published the catalogue of encouraged industries in Western China.

Coal to olefin and coal to methanol projects in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Qinghai were not included in the list.

Then, in December 2015, the Ministry of environmental protection issued the environmental access conditions for modern coal chemical construction projects (Trial), which raised the entry threshold of modern coal chemical projects.

"Conditions" requires that the layout of coal chemical enterprises must be preferentially selected in areas with relatively rich water resources and good environmental capacity.

In order to develop modern coal chemical industry projects in areas where there is no environmental capacity, measures such as economic structure adjustment, coal consumption equivalent or reduction substitution must be carried out in advance to release environmental capacity, and advanced technology and pollution control technology should be adopted to minimize pollutant emissions.

new modern coal chemical projects should be strictly controlled in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and water shortage areas.

Undoubtedly, this wave of policy to the coal chemical industry on the tight hoop curse.

However, the industry has different views on whether this mantra is beneficial to the long-term development of coal chemical industry.

"In the past, the development of coal chemical industry was overheated, resulting in environmental pollution and product surplus.

The development of coal chemical industry should have a moderate principle, and industrial policy can regulate the development of coal chemical industry.

The restriction of coal chemical industry can help its scientific and orderly development.

Although the policy has put a curse on the coal chemical industry, these policies are beneficial in the long run.

At present, the Ministry of environmental protection is carefully releasing modern coal chemical projects.

After the policy is tightened, it will be gradually released to a suitable scale, which is beneficial to the sustainable development of coal chemical industry.

This is not a shackle to the development of coal chemical industry, but to help coal chemical industry on the road of scientific development.

" Coal chemical industry senior personage Tang Hongqing told reporters.

Sun Zhiqiang, director of the coal chemical industry department of Shanxi Lu'an Mining (Group) Co., Ltd., believes that the national energy administration and the Ministry of environmental protection have continuously issued relevant policies to guide the scientific development of coal chemical industry, and strict requirements on the planning of coal chemical industry park and environmental impact assessment planning, which can guide the orderly development of the industry and restrain overheating.

Of course, there are also different views - rigid policies may not be conducive to the emerging modern coal chemical industry.

Today's coal industry policy is not conducive to the development of modern coal industry.

In the next five years, the state may tighten the policy of modern coal chemical industry, and it is no longer or difficult to add new coal to gas projects.

Chinese coal.